Will the final game of Week 6 swing fantasy football matchups? The Dallas Cowboys‘ fantasy preview puts air in the tires of their star running back, while the Los Angeles Chargers‘ fantasy outlook centers around the battle for the WR2 role.
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Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Cowboys -2
- Total: 50.5
- Cowboys implied points: 26.3
- Chargers implied points: 24.3
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott: He has name recognition and plays for “America’s Team,” but there is no need to consider him a viable option — even against a less-than-stingy Chargers defense.
Prescott has yet to finish a single week better than QB17 and has just one multi-touchdown effort on his 2023 résumé.
Justin Herbert: The Chargers’ signal-caller has been a top-six fantasy QB in three of four games this season and has accounted for multiple scores in each of his past six regular-season games. Even coming off of a bye, he deserves to be downgraded a bit for the finger fracture on his non-throwing hand against an elite pass rush, but Herbert’s far from falling outside the must-start tier.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
This is a great spot to get RB Austin Ekeler back to help offset the game-breaking potential of this Dallas defensive front. It’s tough to quantify, but Chargers’ OC Kellen Moore saw this Cowboys defense in practice for five seasons and could be uniquely qualified to scheme up a plan with two weeks to perfect it.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard: With four straight finishes outside of the top 12 running backs, Pollard’s stock might be as low now as it’ll get at any point for the remainder of the season. Pounce, pounce now.
The Chargers are a bottom-five defense in terms of yards allowed per play, and Pollard averages 29 touches per game in matches not decided by 30 points.
As long as this game stays tight, you can pencil in Pollard as a game-breaker this week. San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey has a tough matchup with the Browns, which leaves the door open for Pollard to be the top-scoring RB this week.
number of redzone carries and touchdown rate on those carries:
1. tony pollard, 28 (7.1%)
2. christian mccaffrey, 27 (22.2%)
3. david montgomery, 25 (20.0%)
4. kyren williams, 18 (27.8%)
5. joe mixon, 18 (5.9%)positive regression for pollard and mixon is coming soon…
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) October 11, 2023
Austin Ekeler: The one time we saw him this season was a 20-touch, 24.4-point effort against the Miami Dolphins, and he was replaced by RB Joshua Kelley (Weeks 2-4: 2.8 yards per carry).
Much like the situation for the Packers or Giants, the starting running back missed time and returned positioned to see an increase in workload due to the failures of his replacement.
It’s obviously not a soft landing spot for Ekeler to return after a month off, but there should be zero hesitation about plugging him in.
Joshua Kelley: Kelley flamed out when Ekeler was on the shelf. These struggles figure to cap his touch upside moving forward.
It’s hard to see him holding standalone value next to Ekeler, and with the failures in the starting role, Kelley’s fantasy value is hanging on by a thread.
I think he should remain rostered for the next month (Weeks 9-10 are RB-heavy, so you may be in need of depth), but he shouldn’t be remotely close to your lineup against the Cowboys.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb: Game script has impacted everyone on this offense, and Lamb is no exception. The star receiver has been held under 55 receiving yards in back-to-back-to-back games — something that I doubt we see again anytime soon.
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With a catch rate north of 77% and a 29+ yard reception in four of five games, the bounce-back will come in only a matter of time.
Michael Gallup: Does this team need a WR2? I don’t believe so, but if you want to chase that role, Gallup (5+ targets in three straight) is the play over Brandin Cooks (one five-target game this season).
You can do better on your waiver wire with players like Rashee Rice, Curtis Samuel, Wan’Dale Robinson, and others than having to overextend for a piece of this underwhelming offense.
Keenan Allen: Consecutive WR1 finishes in Weeks 2-3 showcased the upside of the veteran receiver, and while that stretch was bookended by finishes outside of the top 25, his role makes him among the safest receivers in the game.
I think his upside takes a little bit of a hit without WR Mike Williams (ACL) demanding attention on the other side of the field, but that’s not to say he is anything but a lineup lock in all formats.
Joshua Palmer: The WR2 role in Los Angeles is going to be a discussion point every week; it’s just that simple. This offense has the ability to be creative and high-powered with Herbert steering the ship, a profile that makes this role worth chasing.
In Week 4 against the Raiders, per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet, Palmer played 23 more snaps than rookie Quentin Johnston and led the team with eight targets (33.3% share). He was able to pull down only three of those targets, but the nature of those looks (51.6% air-yard share) allowed him to post a team-best 77 receiving yards.
Palmer gets a bump in my rankings for owning the inside track to the WR2 role in this offense, but the matchup with the Cowboys drags that back down, which leaves him outside of my top 35. He is currently listed as questionable (groin), increasing Quentin Johnston’s value a touch.
Quentin Johnston: You’re playing the long game if you have Johnston rostered and are betting on talent.
I have no issue with that, but you shouldn’t be expecting Week 6 returns.
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The No. 21 overall pick from this past spring looks the part of Mike Williams and will have his chances to make plays with time, but the fact that he has yet to record 20 yards in an NFL game keeps him out of lineups in the short term.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson: The Week 5 blowout at the hands of the 49ers wasn’t enough to scare me off the scent of Ferguson. He saw exactly seven targets in three of his first four games this season, and volume like that is simply difficult to find at the TE position these days.
Is the upside great? No, but Prescott is all aboard the struggle bus, and I expect a run-centric attack this week. That doesn’t mean Ferguson can’t record a handful of grabs and flirt with double-digit fantasy points — an outcome that is more than acceptable for my TE9.
Gerald Everett: For a player with a 92.9% catch rate, it’s shocking that Everett has yet to finish a week better than TE19 this season. TE Donald Parham has been the end zone target, and while I think Everett’s role “between the 20s” is encouraging, without much scoring equity, he has little hope of returning top-12 value any given week.
You could do worse than Everett in a matchup where Herbert may have to get rid of the ball in a hurry, but just be aware that the touchdown equity is low.
Should You Start Jake Ferguson or Tyler Higbee?
As down as I am on the Cowboys pass game, Ferguson still profiles as the second option, and that holds value in a matchup in which they are going to need to score. Higbee was a viable option for the first month of the season, but he earned just 8.8% of the targets last week with Cooper Kupp back in the mix. Both offer a low floor, but I have Ferguson projected to see two or three more targets this week — that’s enough for me!
Should You Start Josh Palmer or Joshua Downs?
As bad as this Cowboys defense looked last week, I remain confident that they are a tough matchup. Palmer looks like the WR2 in this offense, but I want to see it coming out of the bye before betting on it.
Downs has been targeted on nearly 26% of Gardner Minshew’s throws this season and it is clear that the two have a strong connection. Give me Downs this week to win the battle for the first name, understanding that Palmer’s upside for the rest of the season is higher.