Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott had his worst fantasy season last year. He missed five games early in the campaign, and when he returned, he wasn’t as prolific as he was from 2019-2021. With a new offensive coordinator and improved wide receivers, what is Prescott’s 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Dak Prescott’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It’s wild to think that at just 30 years old, Prescott is currently the longest-tenured NFL quarterback with his current team. Times are changing.
Prescott is coming off a rather disappointing campaign where he averaged a mere 17.8 fantasy points per game. It was a steep decline from the 21.7 and 20.7 he averaged in 2019 and 2021, as well as the 27.9 ppg pace he was on before shattering his ankle in Week 5 of the 2020 season.
At the risk of cherry-picking data, it is important to put Presecott’s 2022 season into context, though. On the surface, 17.8 ppg looks bad. But that’s the beauty of having all offseason to really analyze the data. For the most part, Prescott was actually the same guy he’s been since making the leap in 2019.
Of course, every game counts. But Prescott had a disastrous Week 1 against a then-elite Bucs pass defense. It was also the game in which he hurt his thumb.
When he returned in Week 7, the team eased him into action. His 25 pass attempts were a season-low.
I am also removing Week 18 for a couple of reasons. First, it doesn’t count for fantasy football. Second, the Cowboys pretty clearly mailed it in, as the game was completely meaningless.
From Week 8-17, Prescott actually averaged 20.7 ppg — right in line with what we’ve come to expect.
I don’t engage in this exercise to artificially craft a narrative where Prescott was better than he was. Rather, we do this to show that there wasn’t any overall decline in his ability. It was just circumstance that created the perception Prescott regressed.
This is especially important for the upcoming season because, on the whole, quarterbacks are being drafted at their earliest since 2012. If you miss out on one of the big three of Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen, you may very well consider yourself better off waiting for someone like Prescott, who is going the latest he has since 2019.
By all accounts, the Cowboys’ offense is even better this season. They’ve upgraded at WR2 by adding Brandin Cooks, moving Michael Gallup to WR3. CeeDee Lamb remains an alpha WR1.
The team has firmly committed to Tony Pollard as their lead back, resulting in the explosive running back being on the field more often. Prescott has no shortage of weapons at his disposal. I am not concerned about the loss of Dalton Schultz.
The biggest potential negative for Prescott is the departure of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. If you are going to fade Prescott because of an offensive coordinator, that’s a decision you have to make.
Under Moore, the Cowboys had the top scoring offense in the NFL in 2019 and 2021. They were still a very respectable 10th last season, which included five games without Prescott. And the aforementioned 2020 season was the one where Prescott was lost after just five games. Moore also liked to play fast and run a lot of no-huddle. The Cowboys had the third-fastest pace of play with Prescott last season.
New OC Brian Schottenheimer has never orchestrated a top-five offense. He was brought in because head coach Mike McCarthy apparently doesn’t like how Moore wants to “light up the scoreboard.”
We don’t really want Prescott losing pass volume or the Cowboys running significantly fewer plays offensively. So, how much stock should we put in the notion that McCarthy wants to run the ball more?
Based on Prescott’s ADP, it seems like the answer is too much. QB11 feels awfully low for a guy with a proven track record. I’m not saying it’s entirely due to the coaching change and projected scheme change, but McCarthy’s passing offenses were just fine in Green Bay. Yes, he had Aaron Rodgers, but let’s not discount how much talent is on this Cowboys offense.
Should You Draft Dak Prescott This Year?
We are going to see a shift in fantasy football draft strategy this season, the likes of which we haven’t really seen since 2012. Elite quarterbacks are going to go, on average, earlier than they have at any point in the past decade. In most leagues, you won’t see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts make it out of the third round. In some, they may start to go in the second.
Having an elite quarterback is more important now than it has been in a long time, possibly ever. The year-to-year consistency of the top guys staying at the top, combined with their weekly upside, makes them worth the early picks.
Prescott has never been considered an elite fantasy quarterback. He might’ve been after the 2020 season had he not gotten hurt, but we can’t know that for sure. And regardless, he did get hurt and has yet to come close to those levels.
The reality is 2020 was a perfect confluence of the Cowboys having a historically bad defense and Prescott playing out of his mind to keep them in games for a quarter of the season.
There was a time when 20 ppg would be good for a top-five finish. That was a long time ago. Now, Prescott projects as a safe, reliable QB1. With the talent this team has on offense, Prescott is always liable to have an outlier touchdown season. It’s in his range of outcomes.
But in the modern NFL, we want fantasy quarterbacks who run. While I have no doubts Prescott can still be that guy, the fact is he hasn’t been.
After rushing for six touchdowns in each of his first three seasons, Prescott has run in only one in each of his past two years. He also averaged 9.1 rushing yards per game in 2021. That went up to 15.2 in 2022 but is still well below his average from 2016-2020.
This season, I want an elite quarterback. If I don’t pay up for one of the big three, I’m looking at the next tier with Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Justin Herbert. Once those guys are gone, that’s where we can start to consider Prescott.
I currently have Prescott ranked as my QB11. You can reasonably get him as high as QB8 or as low as QB14. While the goal should be to secure an elite quarterback, if that isn’t in the cards in a particular draft, Prescott is a safe fallback option who won’t fail you. With a QB9 ADP, No. 76 overall, Prescott is not too expensive to be that guy.
