Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has thrown for over 4,400 yards and at least 30 touchdowns in three straight seasons when he’s played at least 13 games, benefiting fantasy football managers with elite passing volume (403 completions per season across those years) to compensate for his sporadic rushing numbers.
The position is loaded this season. Can Prescott, entering his age-31 season, continue to consistently dominate from the pocket and produce at a top-10 level?
Dak Prescott’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
On the surface, there’s a lot to like with Prescott. The Cowboys ranked fourth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) last season, and their QB has played at least 16 games in six of eight NFL seasons.
Prescott has WR1 CeeDee Lamb, who is on the shortlist for the best in the sport, and plays in an offense that returns the primary ancillary options from 2023 (Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson).
Furthermore, the offensive coaching staff starts this season how it ended the last one, giving us little reason to think that a philosophical change takes place.
So anyway, here’s a timeline cleanse for you.
Enjoy all 36 of Dak Prescott’s league leading TD passes from 2023. #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/v7ZJdbulyN
— Tony Catalina (@Tony_Catalina) June 28, 2024
All of that is great, but we can’t overlook some of the negatives. The lack of rushing production is as damning at the QB position in fantasy football as it has ever been, and we’ve seen Prescott’s appetite for escaping the pocket vanish.
- 2016-2020: 5.3 yards per carry, TD once every 2.9 games
- 2021-2023: 3.9 yards per carry, TD once every 11.3 games
For me, your willingness to draft Prescott as QB7 and at the top of a tier that includes Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Kyler Murray in the Round 6-7 ADP range relies on your evaluation of Ezekiel Elliott.
Is Elliott washed up? It’s possible, if not likely, but what we think doesn’t matter. I mentioned the Cowboys ranking fourth in PROE last season — Elliott was in town for Mike McCarthy’s first three seasons leading this franchise, and their average PROE rank over that stretch was 18th.
If that play-call style returns, Prescott’s ranking in this tier of fantasy signal-callers is going to be an uphill battle, let alone finish atop of it. Heck, even if we split the difference between last season and the prior numbers with Elliott (PROE rank: 11th), I’d be fully out at this price given the upside of those other options at the position.
I currently have Prescott ranked in the middle of that tier and would consider drafting him if he fell to that point. I’m weighing the late-season schedule heavier than I am the concern that the pass-heavy nature of Dallas’ offense regresses.
From Week 13-16, Dallas doesn’t play a game that will have weather issues. To be honest, the defenses it plays over that stretch may pose as little threat as the weather (New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers), too.
Week 17 is likely the Super Bowl in your league. While there are some potential weather concerns when playing in Philadelphia after Christmas, it should be noted that Prescott threw for 374 yards and three scores in the City of Brotherly Love a season ago.
There are quarterbacks I’m targeting (Anthony Richardson and Murray) and others I’m fading (Love and Brock Purdy) this season. Prescott doesn’t fall into either one of those buckets, making him a viable option in my eyes should his asking price dip a bit to the Round 7-8 turn.