The fantasy football community was not pleased with what they got from Dak Prescott last season, as he threw a career-high 15 interceptions despite missing five games, and in the 12 games he did suit up for, he was held under 15 fantasy points in half of them.
That’s not a “bad” season that has “dead to me, I’m never trusting you again” vibes to it, but is that right?
Should we count out a 30-year-old who is just one season removed from a stellar 2021 (4,449 passing yards and a career-best 37 touchdown tosses, landing him as QB8 on a per-game basis), added an experienced receiver to his arsenal this offseason (Brandin Cooks), and is embracing the Tony Pollard era in the backfield that figures to result in more big plays?
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Dak Prescott’s Fantasy Outlook
The Dallas Cowboys made a conscious effort this offseason to offer more big-play potential to their offense. They’ve (finally!) turned over the backfield to Pollard and brought in Cooks (career: 13.7 yards per catch).
#PFN365's @KyleSoppePFN previews the entire fantasy football landscape for the #Cowboys. While Tony Pollard might not be Barry Sanders 2.0, the stats are eerily similar for both No. 20's as Pollard steps up to the starting role in Dallas!
📰 https://t.co/TbPun3T494 pic.twitter.com/EY416Pdurm
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 2, 2023
That said, it’s not all unicorns and rainbows in Big D. Gone from the equation is playmaking tight end Dalton Schultz, and we cannot overlook the fact that Prescott has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons after playing in every single game during his first four campaigns.
If you’re really trying to play chess while the rest of your league plays checkers, the Cowboys have a trio of games against tough defenses during a very critical time of the fantasy season (Weeks 14-16: vs. PHI, at BUF, and at MIA).
There is no question that this offense offers upside that it has lacked in years past, but whether or not the Mike McCarthy/Prescott tandem will be able/willing to take full advantage of that is yet to be seen.
How Concerning Was Prescott’s 2022 Season?
In a word, very. While we saw glimpses of athleticism, it is clear that Prescott is no longer the threat on the ground he once was. He ran for six scores in each of his first three seasons but has managed a total of just five in his past three campaigns, very much limiting his fantasy upside.
Also capping his potential is sheer volume. McCarthy has made it known that he prefers to establish the run, leading to the belief that their rush rate will spike this season, but even if it doesn’t, Prescott had just one game before Christmas Eve with 25 completions last season.
In 2023, each of the top-10 scoring QBs either ran for 35 yards per game or picked up over 250 through the air. Well, Prescott has never run for even 23 yards per game for a season, and in four of his six healthy seasons, he’s finished well short of 250 passing yards per game … so why would we think he hits either after a poor showing in 2022?
What Is Prescott’s Range of Outcomes?
Fantasy football is all about understanding probabilities and variance: What is the best/worst case for any given player, and what are the odds he approaches either tail outcome? When evaluating Prescott’s specific situation, I get nervous. And not the type of nervous you get when the in-laws come over — more the type of nervous when you meet Freddy Krueger in a dark alley.
The fact of the matter is that 2022 could have been even worse. It’s pretty rare for a team to score 40 points in a game (even in today’s NFL that features offense, only four teams did it multiple times in 2022), and the Cowboys managed that ceiling outcome a league-high four times a season ago.
In those four contests, Prescott generated 24.7 fantasy points per game, but when the Cowboys failed to light up the scoreboard, he averaged a mere 13.5 ppg. What is 13.5 ppg? It’s basically 2022 Ryan Tannehill. Woof.
Take the research a step further, and you’ll notice that Prescott’s red-zone touchdown pass rate checked in at the best rate of his career. Sure, maybe he can repeat an outlier season, and maybe Dallas can once again be the most efficient team inside the 20 in the league, but that’s the sort of thing that has a way of leveling off with time.
Any regression in this regard and the near two touchdown passes per game that we’ve come to expect from Prescott will be a thing of the past.
“I want to run the damn ball.” Normally, I’m not one for deep-diving in to coach speak, but this was a pretty forceful statement from McCarthy when asked about taking over play-calling duties this season. And you know what? I’m tempted to believe him.
With Aaron Rodgers arguably at the peak of his powers from 2012-15, McCarthy and the Packers ranked 12th in rush rate — a mark that would have been even higher if he didn’t acknowledge the greatness of Rodgers when in tight (fourth-highest red-zone pass rate over those seasons).
Prescott isn’t peak Rodgers. Heck, I’m not sure he is current Rodgers when it comes to passing the ball, and it doesn’t sound like McCarthy is willing to find out if he can be.
Last but not least is Prescott’s actual ability when he does get the chance to fire. He’s been nothing more than average (22nd among 51 qualifiers since entering the league in yards per attempt on balls thrown at least 10 yards downfield) when challenging defenses vertically, a major issue for a quarterback who needs big plays to flirt with his potential.
In theory, for a QB who offers spotty production with his legs (at best) and struggles to throw deep, YAC players are a requirement, not a luxury. Nobody is going to argue Cedrick Wilson is a premier player, but he took his YAC skills to Miami last season, and it resulted in Prescott’s aDOT jumping by more than 5%.
Again, a jump in aDOT is a good thing for those who have proven the ability to capitalize on the potential it provides, Prescott just hasn’t — not consistently, at least. Say what you will about Ezekiel Elliott, but losing him not only subtracts a YAC option, but it also weakens the pass protection needed to make those deep throws happen.
The Cowboys brought in Cooks — who turns 30 in September and saw his YAC average dip in consecutive seasons — to complement Michael Gallup, a below-average YAC receiver during his time in the NFL, and CeeDee Lamb. Does that sound like a collection of pass catchers that optimize what Prescott brings to the table?
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Prescott at His ADP?
Do what you like, but I will have zero Prescott exposure at his current ADP. I’m generally not fishing in the ADP pond in which he swims for a quarterback — I prefer to jump early or wait even longer — but if I was, give me Tua Tagovailoa or Kirk Cousins instead.
In my drafts thus far, I’m opting for Flex players with significant upside (Jordan Addison, Gabe Davis, and Brain Robinson Jr.) in Prescott’s ADP neighborhood and not thinking twice about clicking on the Cowboys signal-caller. Let somebody else make this mistake — you’re smarter than that!