Detroit Lions wide receiver DJ Chark is coming off a lost season due to injury. Now three years removed from his breakout campaign, Chark looks to restart his career with a new Team. What can fantasy football managers expect from Chark in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
DJ Chark’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Chark’s sophomore year breakout was most improbable following a rookie season that saw him amass just 174 receiving yards. In that second year, Chark posted 73 receptions for 1,0008 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 14.9 PPR fantasy points per game, establishing his WR2 upside.
Chark’s 2020 campaign saw his production fall to 11.8 ppg. In 2021, injuries limited Chark to just four games. Through his four years in the NFL, Chark has had two relevant years and two years where he didn’t matter. Which Chark is the real one?
How the Lions’ depth chart impacts DJ Chark’s fantasy projection for the season
There’s not much analysis necessary when it comes to Chark’s floor. We know how low it is. At worst, Chark will be a completely irrelevant player who ends up on waiver wires by midseason. Therefore, the focus should be on his ceiling. How high is it, and what are the chances he can get there?
At first glance, playing in a Jared Goff-led offense doesn’t seem all that inspiring. However, Goff has supported multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers at various times in the past. At one point, Goff kept Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and a tight end involved.
Where will Chark fall on the target hierarchy?
The Lions are by no means a juggernaut offensively. However, they do have several capable pass catchers. 2021 rookie breakout star Amon-Ra St. Brown is the presumptive WR1. He is the favorite to lead this team in targets. T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift both command high target shares (21% and 18.4% last season, respectively). If Chark’s competition was limited to these three players, his floor would be much higher.
The Lions also drafted Jameson Williams in the first round. He’s coming off a torn ACL and will miss the start of the season. A huge unknown in Chark’s valuation is how quickly Williams will return and what his role will be when he does.
If Chark is the third option in the passing game behind St. Brown and Hockenson, there’s real WR3 upside here. Josh Reynolds (who is still on the roster and the likely WR3 until Williams returns) had two games last season of at least 16 fantasy points.
Kalif Raymond saw a 13.7% target share and Reynolds a 13% target share last season. Their production should be consolidated into Chark. If Chark even sees an 18% target share, he will be a worthwhile selection and someone who has the occasional spike week.
Does Chark still possess WR2 upside?
While St. Brown is certainly the favorite to lead this team in targets, there’s still a chance, albeit a small one, that Chark overtakes him. St. Brown is a talented receiver, but he’s not a true WR1.
St. Brown ran 63% of his routes out of the slot last season. If Chark can return to his pre-injury level of play, he profiles as more of an outside alpha and could become Goff’s favorite receiver.
The Lions are a trendy dark horse pick to make the playoffs. This offense could be much improved. If it is, everyone could outperform expectations.
Chark’s ADP for 2022
Chark’s ADP is firmly inside the top 192 players that typically get drafted in a standard-sized 12-team league. He’s going around WR61. We are right in line with ADP, ranking him as our consensus WR60.
Chark will turn just 26 years old in September. He was good once and can be good again. At his ADP, Chark is someone you can make the last wide receiver on your bench. Stash him for a couple of weeks and see how Goff distributes his targets.
If Chark is heavily involved, you’ve got yourself a steal. If he’s behind St. Brown, Swift, and Hockenson, let him go. Consider Chark a low-floor/moderate-ceiling WR5.