Washington Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel had a hot moment last season but quickly cooled off. Now the presumptive WR3 on a bad offense, is there any hope for Samuel in fantasy this season? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Curtis Samuel’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
I’ve always been a fan of Samuel as a talent. In another life, perhaps he was able to find himself on a team with quality quarterback play that is able to use him correctly, allowing him to reach his true potential. On the Commanders in the year 2023, it’s probably not going to happen.
Samuel is entering his seventh NFL season and is still somehow just 27 years old. While he still has a whole lot of football in front of him, we also have six years of data on him. At this point, he is who he is.
Last season, Samuel played all 17 games. He caught 64 of 92 targets for 656 yards and four touchdowns. Other than his outlier 2020 season, when he totaled 851 yards and averaged 14.1 PPR fantasy points per game, it was more of the same for Samuel.
Samuel opened last season about as hot as can be. He scored 19.2 fantasy points in Week 1 and 22.9 fantasy points in Week 2. I remember regretting not bidding on him after Week 1. In retrospect, it was the correct decision.
Weeks 1 and 2 wound up being Samuel’s best two weeks of the year by a sizable margin. He finished the season averaging 10.4 ppg, which is even worse when you consider his first two games.
For a guy with blazing 4.31 speed, Samuel has just never been utilized properly. In 2022, his 6.5 average depth of target was 95th in the league. He averaged just 1.38 yards per route run and 7.1 yards per target, both outside the top 70. Samuel was only targeted on 19.3% of his routes run (64th).
Should You Draft Curtis Samuel This Year?
Last season, Samuel had incumbent status over rookie Jahan Dotson. It was his best shot at staking his claim to the Commanders’ WR2 role opposite Terry McLaurin. This season, Samuel is the clear WR3.
Whether it’s Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett, the Commanders will not have three fantasy-relevant receivers. They will be fortunate to even have two.
Samuel’s ADP is WR81, No. 196 overall. My ranking of WR82 is right in line with ADP. There’s no reason to draft Samuel. Given his explosive ability, I’m sure he will have a couple of spike weeks, securing a spot on weekly waiver wire columns. But he will inevitably fade in the following week. In his seventh season, he is not about to reinvent himself and usurp McLaurin or Dotson.
