The Washington Commanders‘ pass-happy offense last year helped Curtis Samuel become a reliable, yet unspectacular, Flex option in full-PPR formats operating alongside Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Now, he joins a Buffalo Bills offense that jettisoned a pair of starting wide receivers off the roster earlier this year.
Can fantasy managers expect Samuel to be the highest-scoring fantasy WR in Buffalo in 2024?
Curtis Samuel’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 183.6
- Receptions: 72.9
- Receiving Yards: 678.4
- Receiving TDs: 4.0
- Rushing Yards: 128.9
- Rushing TDs: 1.0
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Samuel This Year?
For the vast majority of his pro career, Samuel has hovered between the WR30 to WR50 range. His best season came back in 2020 with the Carolina Panthers when he totaled 77 receptions for 851 yards to go with another 200 rushing yards and five total TDs. He finished as the WR25 overall in full-PPR formats.
Samuel’s final two years in Washington saw him produce a fantasy floor of 90+ targets, 60+ receptions, 600+ receiving yards, and four TDs per season. Considering the Commanders’ lack of stability during this time, this shouldn’t be viewed as a colossal failure, but he was clearly the second option behind McLaurin during his time in Washington.
Fast forward to the present and Samuel will be catching passes from star QB Josh Allen this upcoming season, who lost 1,929 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns worth of production from last year’s roster with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. His target competition consists of Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and rookie WR Keon Coleman. The case could certainly be made that Samuel is the most proven pass-catching option on the roster.
The thing that is a bit tricky to determine will be where exactly Samuel fits into this offense schematically. Samuel lined up the slot 70.6% of the time last season. Shakir lined up in the slot 67.2% of his time on the field and Kincaid was utilized heavily as a big slot/move TE last year by appearing there in 49.8% of his snaps in 2023. Coleman will likely be operating outside, but will Samuel flex out to the X or flanker positions regularly? Can he be effective in that role? These are questions that we probably won’t get answers to until the season opener.
Samuel has undoubtedly had a productive NFL career and adds something to a WR room, but I still have my doubts about whether he can truly be the leading man of an NFL passing attack.
Samuel’s ADP at No. 119 overall in the 10th round as the WR52 off the board gives him plenty of upside as a potential leading receiver in a high-powered Bills offense with an undetermined target share entering the 2024 NFL season. For some additional context, he is currently being selected after Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Legette, and Jameson Williams.
Samuel’s formation versatility and RAC playmaking ability make him a reliable option for Allen to push the ball to in the short-to-intermediate area of the field. Additionally, Samuel has been deployed as a satellite weapon in the manufactured touch game of an offensive scheme, which gives him another slight boost in fantasy value.
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The knock against Samuel is that he has never shown us he can be a top-20 fantasy WR throughout his first seven years in the NFL. Does some of this have to do with playing in below-average offensive units with subpar quarterback play throughout the majority of his career? Possibly, but the data suggests we aren’t very likely to see a breakout fantasy season from a player who hasn’t registered a single WR2 season through his first seven years in the NFL.
This is Samuel’s best — and likely final — chance to enter the fantasy WR2 conversation. At his current ADP, Samuel presents fantasy managers with the opportunity to get a share of this Bills’ passing offense at a very reasonable price.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insight on Curtis Samuel
While it has been a long time since Samuel and Joe Brady worked together, there is certainly a familiarity with one another that is encouraging, given the number of moving pieces in this Bills offense. Samuel is my top-ranked receiver in Buffalo at the moment, though I don’t see myself being too exposed to him this season.
His ADP resides in that Round 10-11 neighborhood with Brian Thomas Jr., a rookie receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars who very much fits the mold of a player I like to stash. Jakobi Meyers and Romeo Doubs are two other receivers in this range that I prefer to Samuel in my chasing of upside.
If you do elect to draft Samuel, I’d suggest targeting players with home-run upside in the final few rounds. If he works out, he’s a viable floor play — every good fantasy team has players like that. But it’s also important to swing for the fences when the time calls for it.
