Buffalo Bills WR Curtis Samuel has a clear starting role in an offense that let go of two receivers this offseason, but does that mean he holds fantasy football value in 2024?
Should You Select Curtis Samuel at His Current ADP?
ADP: 134th Overall (WR51)
While it has been a long time since Samuel and Joe Brady worked together, there is certainly a familiarity with one another that is encouraging, given the number of moving pieces in this Bills offense. Samuel is my top-ranked receiver in Buffalo at the moment, though I don’t see myself being too exposed to him this season.
His ADP resides in that Round 10-11 neighborhood with Brian Thomas Jr., a rookie receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars who very much fits the mold of a player I like to stash. Jakobi Meyers and Romeo Doubs are two other receivers in this range that I prefer to Samuel in my chasing of upside.
If you do elect to draft Samuel, I’d suggest targeting players with home-run upside in the final few rounds. If he works out, he’s a viable floor play — every good fantasy team has players like that. But it’s also important to swing for the fences when the time calls for it.
Samuel’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Before we get to Samuel himself, we have to address this situation. Buffalo’s pass rate over expectation fell off a cliff after Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the team’s offensive coordinator. It worked incredibly well (6-1 finish to a regular season that started 5-5).
After last season, I wasn’t sold on how this transition would impact 2024. Given the talent on Buffalo’s roster, I was willing to project a bounce back to a pass-heavy scheme with an offseason for Brady to maximize the weapons at his disposal.
That mindset all changed when the franchise traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis walk. The drafting of Keon Coleman and signing of Samuel means that the cupboard isn’t bare alongside an encouraging young receiver in Khalil Shakir, but if we’re listening to what the Bills are telling us, a return to an aerial attack seems unlikely.
As for Samuel, the seven-year NFL veteran has just one season on his résumé with 700 receiving yards (2020 with the Carolina Panthers and Brady). As you’d expect, the lack of annual upside is highlighted by a lack of weekly upside. He has four career 100-yard games across 91 contests.
We all like filling our fantasy benches with upside. If that is your goal around Round 10 when Samuel is coming off the board, you’re looking elsewhere. He averages 10.7 yards per catch for his career and has yet to display the ability to earn targets at a high level.
- Career: 6.6 targets per game
- 2023: 5.7 targets per game
That number last season is more damning than it looks. The Commanders were a wide-open offense (third in pass rate over expectation and a league-leading 636 attempts) with only one proven pass catcher, and yet, Samuel wasn’t constantly getting looks.
This Bills team has even less proven talent at the pass-catcher positions, but the passing environment will not be nearly as advantageous as it was in Washington last season.
#Commanders QB Sam Howell hits Curtis Samuel in stride to extend the drive 👀#HTTC
pic.twitter.com/w117uTlxS9— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 23, 2023
Now, the impact of the dip in volume will be mitigated by an increase in the quality of looks, but that’s a big gap to cover.
Samuel has hauled in 72.3% of his targets over the past four seasons, and that has the potential to buoy his PPR stock. He’s unlikely to break out in any given week, but in deeper PPR leagues where 4-5 catches for 50-ish yards hold value, then the appeal of Samuel is there in the second half of the draft.