Curtis Samuel had a breakthrough season in Carolina last season. He averaged 14 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as a WR2 or better in 47% of his 15 active games. The soon-to-be 25-year-old receiver signed a three-year, $34 million contract with the Washington Football Team during free agency. This article will provide a fantasy football outlook on Samuel for 2021 and whether he is a value at his current ADP or not.
Curtis Samuel’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Samuel joins a revamped Washington offense that includes multiple key offensive additions, with Ryan Fitzpatrick providing stability at the quarterback position. Samuel is also reunited with former college teammate Terry McLaurin.
McLaurin has dealt with the dysfunction in Washington. He caught at least 1 pass from six different quarterbacks during his first two NFL seasons. On top of Samuel, Washington added wide receivers Dyami Brown and Adam Humphries. Regardless, McLaurin expects to open the season as Fitzpatrick’s No. 1 target, with Samuel as his No. 2. Washington’s offense will be more multi-dimensional in 2021, with numerous players involved.
A shift in Washington’s offensive mindset
Washington head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner will lean more on the passing game. The Football Team ranked 25th last season in passing yards (220.8) and points scored per game (21). McLaurin was the only receiver on the team to exceed 1,000 or more receiving yards. However, Fitzpatrick’s arrival should lead to a higher completion percentage and more pass attempts of 20+ yards.
Furthermore, Turner has a history with Samuel from his time with the Panthers. There, he used Samuel as a receiver and a runner, which could also happen in Washington.
On the flip side, we should talk about running back J.D. McKissic. McKissic (110) had the second-most targets behind McLaurin (134) last season. However, this is unlikely to repeat itself with Fitzpatrick under center and the addition of Samuel.
Samuel is another vertical offensive weapon for Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick has averaged 277 passing air yards per game since 2017. Air yards indicate how far a pass travels in the air before it is caught. Samuel caught 10 of 13 targets of 20+ yards last season.
Additionally, Samuel ranked ninth in fantasy points per target (2.18) among wide receivers. He was also lethal as a runner, averaging 5 yards per attempt on 41 carries and scoring 2 rushing touchdowns. These are aspects of his game that Washington will leverage in 2021. It is also important to discuss the impact running back Antonio Gibson will have on the passing game.
Gibson will see more targets, but it isn’t a bad thing
Gibson should be used more as a receiver in Washington’s passing attack. Running backs coach Randy Jordan and the other offensive coaches are confident that Gibson can maximize the additional targets.
As a reminder, Gibson accumulated 44 receptions for 834 yards and 10 touchdowns in two seasons with Memphis. Moreover, he had more receptions than rushing attempts (33) in 19 collegiate games.
You may be concerned about Washington’s number of offensive weapons. Will Samuel get enough touches to be fantasy-relevant? In short, yes, thanks to the evolution of the NFC East.
The NFC East is changing
Washington’s offense will be more fast-paced than many expect. All of the offenses in the NFC East have upgraded this offseason. Even with a stout defense, Washington will want to score as many points as possible each game.
We have Fitzpatrick projected for around 550 pass attempts in 2021. And Samuel is still in a position to see 130 opportunities as a receiver and runner.
Fantasy projection
Across a full season, Samuel could see around 110 targets, 20 rushing attempts, 1,000 total yards, and 6 touchdowns this season. He can be viewed as a high-end WR3 with some WR1 performances mixed in as well.
Unfortunately, Samuel currently has no timetable for a return. As recently as August 26, Washington OC, Scott Turner, was quoted as saying that he did not want Samuel to rush back. That is somewhat concerning, but Washington did not take the step of placing Samuel on the PUP list during final roster cuts on August 31.
Now it will be interesting to see what happens ahead of the season. If Samuel is placed on injured reserve, he will miss at least three weeks. However, in a long season, three weeks is relatively nothing if it means you have Samuel firing when fantasy playoffs come along.
Curtis Samuel’s ADP in fantasy drafts
Samuel is usually available in the 9th round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. His ADP in half-PPR leagues on Sleeper is 101.4. Meanwhile on the high stakes National Fantasy Championship platform, his ADP is currently 104.7.
Should you draft Curtis Samuel at this ADP in 2021?
Even with the injury concern, Samuel is a value at his current ADP. He provides you a solid floor as a top-end WR3 with the potential for a higher ceiling. The biggest concern is that Samuel ends up rushing back early in the season, only to re-aggravate the injury. If that does happen you could be looking at an extended spell without the playmaker.