Curtis Samuel is set to embark on the third part of his career as the Buffalo Bills are his third NFL team.
On his previous two teams, Samuel had moments of fantasy relevance but was never a sustained producer. In the best situation of his career, could this be the year Samuel becomes a reliable fantasy football asset?
Curtis Samuel’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
I’ve always been a Samuel guy. Perhaps a bit unfairly labeled as a gadget guy, Samuel has built himself into a very reliable wide receiver. He’s a player quarterbacks can trust; a guy who doesn’t make mistakes.
The issue is, while that’s great for NFL teams, he’s never really seen enough volume to be a consistent fantasy starter.
Samuel’s best season came in 2020 when he averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR27. Other than that, he’s never finished higher than overall WR43 and never averaged more than 10.7 fantasy points per game.
I’m not one to buy too much into an “offensive coordinator loves WR” narrative. However, I would be remiss not to at least mention that Samuel’s offensive coordinator in Carolina in his career 2020 season was Joe Brady, who happens to be the Bills’ current OC.
Merely having the same offensive coordinator is not enough to alter a player’s fantasy value. However, the circumstances Samuel finds himself in this season are perhaps the most favorable of his career.
For starters, it goes without saying that Josh Allen is, by far, the best quarterback Samuel has ever played with. Additionally, his competition for targets is not steep.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid projects to lead the Bills in targets. But Allen has to throw to someone else. His options are rookie Keon Coleman, role player (I think) Khalil Shakir, and Samuel.
The Bills hope Coleman emerges as their top guy, but Samuel is the reliable veteran. It’s not unrealistic to project him to lead all WRs in targets.
No one is going to fully replace Stefon Diggs. Allen is not about to hyper-target anyone. Disspell yourself of any notions that Samuel can be a fantasy WR2. But can he be a WR3? Absolutely.
Last season, Samuel only averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. But he did have a three-game stretch of 18.2, 18.5, and 14.2 fantasy points. Later in the season, he had another three-game stretch of 19.0, 10.5, and 21.1 fantasy points. He wasn’t consistent, but he proved capable of producing when called upon.
Samuel’s 22.5% targets per route run rate was 34th in the league. That’s actually pretty good for a guy who came into the season as the WR3 on what was supposed to be a not-so-great Washington Commanders team.
The key, as always, is price. Samuel’s ADP sits at WR51, No. 135 overall. That late in drafts, we are purely looking for upside. While Samuel lacks top-24 upside, is there really anyone going around him that has it? If we can get WR30ish production from our WR50, we would sign for that right now.
I have Samuel ranked as my WR50, which is right in line with consensus. Whenever you can get a potential WR1 for an NFL team outside the top 36, you should consider it. When you can get the potential WR1 for an offense that projects to be top-five in scoring, you make sure to do so in at least some of your drafts.
