The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Curtis Samuel.
Is Curtis Samuel Playing vs. the Chiefs?
Samuel was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play against Kansas City.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Curtis Samuel in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
Let’s be honest — are you really considering Curtis Samuel if not for his 55-yard touchdown in a game that was already all but decided in the Wild Card Round against the Broncos?
I say no.
Remove that single catch and here are his last five games with a fully involved Josh Allen:
- Divisional Round vs. Ravens: 10 routes, two targets, and nine yards
- Wild Card vs. Broncos: 15 routes, two targets, and 13 yards
- Week 15 at Lions: 12 routes, two targets, and one yard
- Week 14 at Rams: 25 routes, three targets, and 15 yards
- Week 13 vs. 49ers: seven routes and zero targets
The outlier touchdown made him a viable option during a postseason slate, and people even considering Samuel (heck, people reading this portion of the article) seem to be holding onto that with too much value in my opinion.
Tre Tucker, Calvin Austin III, and Tylan Wallace all also had a 55+ yard score this season. Did you ever once consider calling their numbers?
Unlikely.
Samuel saw his playing time dip from 41.7% in the Wild Card Round to 30.5% in the Divisional Round, and it’s hard to think Buffalo features him in this spot. Khalil Shakir is the slot machine in this offense with Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman as more dangerous downfield threats. Sprinkle in James Cook and Dalton Kincaid’s usage — you start running out of ways for Samuel to pay off his admittedly low price tag.
I’ll have punt options across my rosters this week (you have to), but Samuel isn’t on that list.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Curtis Samuel’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Samuel is projected to score 2.6 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 1.1 receptions for 9.8 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the backups flopped against the Broncos.
With the varsity team back for the Divisional Round, Kansas City demonstrated the type of disruptiveness this unit can generate at full strength. Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy game plan overwhelmed the Texans. The Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes against Houston, the highest by any team to send 15+ blitzes in a game this season.
The only area of concern to emerge from the Divisional Round was the third-down defense. Excluding Week 18, Kansas City allowed its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) all season. The only higher rate they allowed was to their AFC Championship Game opponent, as the Bills converted 60% of their third downs in Week 11.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking ahead of their eighth straight AFC title game. That's a familiar story and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Curtis Samuel’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship WR PPR Rankings
1) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at PHI)
3) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
4) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at KC)
5) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. BUF)
7) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. BUF)
8) Keon Coleman | BUF (at KC)
9) Dyami Brown | WAS (at PHI)
10) Mack Hollins | BUF (at KC)
11) Amari Cooper | BUF (at KC)
12) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at KC)
13) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at PHI)
14) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. BUF)
15) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. WAS)
16) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at PHI)
17) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at PHI)
18) Justin Watson | KC (vs. BUF)
19) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. WAS)
20) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. WAS)
21) Nikko Remigio | KC (vs. BUF)
22) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
