The Dallas Cowboys will face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Cowboys skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 14 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Cooper Rush, QB
One fantasy storyline (in DFS and otherwise) this week could be a simple one. Does putrid quarterback play beat vulnerable defenses? If you believe so, you get access to Will Levis against the Jaguars and Cooper Rush hosting the Bengals.
Volume has been on the side of Dallas’ backup due to game script (123 pass attempts over his past three games), something that most will project to again be the case.
I’d rather go with Levis.
Rush was able to average only 5.4 yards per attempt on Thanksgiving against the Giants, and if efficiency isn’t going to be something we can bank on, there’s not much hope. We haven’t seen nearly enough athleticism to think that we can get bailed out that way (nine carries for one yard over the past three weeks), and considering that Rush was able to get CeeDee Lamb only a pair of catches (39 yards), I’m skeptical that we have “bank on an elite teammate to drag him across the fantasy finish line” potential.
You can do better.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB
Ezekiel Elliott’s name holds value, but his role and form simply do not. Rico Dowdle has been labeled as the bell cow in Dallas, a role that he’s not in any danger of losing.
If Zeke was getting every non-Dowdle carry, we might be able to squint and justify rostering the veteran, but that’s not even close to the case — he got one of the 10 rush attempts that didn’t go to the starter (Hunter Luepke had three).
You’re not optimizing your roster if Elliott is still kicking around the back end of it.
Rico Dowdle, RB
Rico Dowdle has been given the keys to this backfield, and it looks good on him. He’s averaged north of 3.0 yards per carry after first contact in five straight games. He seems to be a good player and will be an interesting follow this summer as he becomes an unrestricted free agent entering his age-27 season.
For the short term, I think you can feel good about him as a RB2. Dallas’ best defense against Cincinnati will be a patient offense, something that they proved capable of doing in a Dowdle-centric way on Thanksgiving against the Giants (22 carries for 112 yards and a score, he was the only Cowboy with even five rushing yards). He’s run at least 20 routes in two of three games and, for the season, has produced 10.1% over expectation when being handed the ball at least 15 times.
There’s not a lot to like in Dallas these days, but at least its running game has found a consistent option.
Brandin Cooks, WR
Brandin Cooks had a nice diving touchdown last week, but this profile is far too thin to bet on, even in this perfect spot. In his return to action (missed all of October and November), the veteran receiver was on the field for just 39.7% of Dallas’ snaps, a role that is rarely going to pay off in a Cooper Rush-led offense.
Cooks showed signs of decline when fully healthy last season, making a limited version of himself that is a year older something I’m not interested in. This is an underwhelming passing game that has a handful of secondary options next to CeeDe Lamb, none of whom project to consistently hold the edge in target equity.
You should be making excuses to not play Cowboys, not the other way around.
CeeDee Lamb, WR
That’s three straight games without an end-zone target for CeeDee Lamb and five straight without a score. He is hanging on for dear life to his status as a lineup lock in this Cooper Rush-led offense, but fortunately, the NFL gods prescribed him the best cure for his recent struggles:
The Cincinnati Bengals.
The road team has the eighth-highest opponent pass touchdown rate and has seen a receiver reach 18 PPR points on 10 occasions. More encouraging than that raw number are two of the names on that list: Jakobi Meyers and Diontae Johnson (with Carolina) both did despite well below-average quarterback play.
I’ve got Lamb ranked as a top-10 receiver this week and am optimistic that we see glimpses of greatness on Monday night, even if the upside for this offense is capped.
Jalen Tolbert, WR
The Cowboys were rewarded on Thanksgiving for a wide distribution of targets, and that’s the worst possible news for any managers trying to pluck usage off of the waiver wire for this advantageous matchup. In the win over New York, Cooper Rush targeted six players four to seven times; that’s not going to cut it.
The Bengals are a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of attempts, yards per completion, passer rating, touchdown rate, and sack percentage. They are gettable, and maybe Dallas hangs 30 points on them, but you’re overestimating your predictive powers if you think you can say who, outside of CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle, is in the middle of that production.
Cowboys WR production, Week 13:
- KaVontae Turpin: four catches on five targets for 53 yards
- Tolbert: two catches on four targets for 41 yards
- Brandin Cooks: three catches on seven targets for 16 yards and a TD
- Jonathan Mingo: one catch on four targets for two yards
One of those players could have a big Week 14, but given the risk involved in betting on any of them, I’m not going in this direction unless I’m in true desperation mode.
Jonathan Mingo, WR
Jonathan Mingo has earned 10 targets with the Cowboys since being acquired at the deadline — he has 10 yards to show for it.
It’s fair to have concerns about the value of the high-volume pieces of this offense (CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle), making a secondary option like this well off the radar. I’d rather dig deep down depth charts in Detroit, Cincinnati, or Tampa Bay for sleeper candidates, offenses that offer more upside through the air than this version of the Dallas offense.
Jake Ferguson, TE
Jake Ferguson suffered a concussion in Week 11 and was unable to play on Thanksgiving as he continues to recover. Not all head injuries are created equal, and that means we have to take this situation day by day.
I’m hopeful that he returns for this plus matchup. By EPA, this is the fifth-worst pass defense in the league, and the TE1 role in this offense is likely to be viable if you, like me, expect the game script to work toward another volume game for Cooper Rush.
It’s been a brutal season for Ferguson (two games since September with 25+ yards), but should we get strong reports on his status, I’m not ruling out sliding him inside my top 15 at the position. At the bottom level of usable options at the position, if I can get two of three boxes checked, I’m at least moderately interested.
- Role
- Matchup
- Efficiency
I’d argue that, if at full strength, we could be looking at a matchup difference-maker on Monday night. If you can add Luke Schoonmaker or Mike Gesicki as insurance, I’d 100% do that in an effort to buy as much time as possible.
Luke Schoonmaker, TE
Luke Schoonmaker has at least five grabs or a touchdown in three straight games, showing well for himself as he fills the Jake Ferguson role. Given the lack of a reliable WR2 in this offense, could Dallas opt for two tight ends when their presumed starter is back?
It’s possible, but while that would keep Schoonmaker on the field, I’m not confident that this recent run of production is sustainable in a Cooper Rush-led offense.
If there is a singular tight end dominating the opportunities at the position by the time we get to the weekend, I’ll play him as a low-end TE1 (be it Ferguson at full strength or Schoonmaker filling that role as he has recently). If we lack that clarity, I’d rather go to Mike Gesicki or Juwan Johnson as my Band-Aid at the position.
Commanders at Cowboys Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: Washington won last week after trailing by double digits at halftime, improving their mark in such spots since 2002 to 5-87.
QB: Jayden Daniels posted the fourth regular season game all-time with at least 225 passing and 125 rushing yards, joining:
- 2019 Lamar Jackson
- 2018 Josh Allen
- 2010 Michael Vick
Offense: Staying on the field sounds simple, but it’s proven predictive this season – Washington is now 8-0 when reaching their average number of plays per drive (otherwise: 3-5).
Defense: The offense gets a lot of attention, but this defense is allowing a league-high 3.73 points per fourth-quarter drive this season (pacing to be the highest by a team since the 2021 Raiders).
Fantasy: Zach Ertz didn’t turn 34 until Week 11, yet his five touchdowns this season as a 34-year-old are tied for the most by a player this season (Adam Thielen also has five, but he’s been 34 all season).
Betting: A cover this weekend would give the Commanders two in road divisional games for just the second time in eight seasons (also: 2020).
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Since Week 6, Dallas has been outscored 122-22 in their three toughest matchups according to the PFN+ Power Rankings (both Eagle games and a home date with the Lions).
QB: Cooper Rush’s aDOT entering Week 17 was 6.7 yards. On Sunday, with CeeDee Lamb shelved, his rate spiked to 9.4.
Offense: Dallas has cashed in all six of its goal-to-go drives over the past seven games. The problem has been getting in such spots (six trips).
Defense: “Defense wins championships”, but for the Cowboys, it dictates every regular season result – they’ve won their top-7 point-per-drive efforts of the season while losing their other nine games.
Fantasy: That’s now six straight games with over 100 rushing yards or at least three catches for Rico Dowdle.
Betting: An ATS loss this week would wrap up a 2-7 ATS season at home for Dallas, their third-lowest home cover rate of the millennium (2012 and 2015 being the exceptions).