The Dallas Cowboys will face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Cowboys skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Dak Prescott, QB
This matchup is friendly enough to sniff around Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb stacks in DFS. Yet, with multiple interceptions in three of Prescott’s past four games, I’m not sold on the floor being high enough to justify going in this direction in season-long formats.
Most quarterbacks in today’s NFL offer some level of mobility and, for fantasy, that factors into why I largely don’t sweat interceptions. They usually indicate aggression (which we want), and many can get those points back with their legs at some point, not to mention the fantasy-friendly game script that has the potential to arise from a turnover that puts his team behind.
But the days of Prescott producing at even a league-average rate with his legs are long gone. He has more games with a negative rushing total this season than double-digit yard performances.
The case for America’s QB this week is simple. The Falcons can’t pressure the QB (fourth-lowest rate), and when Prescott isn’t pressured, he gets the ball to Lamb.
- Lamb target share when Prescott is pressured: 15.4%
- Lamb target share when Prescott isn’t pressured: 30.4%
If you’re telling me that 30.4% of Prescott’s passes go in Lamb’s direction, I’ll blindly start him. Of course, we don’t know if that’s going to be the case, and I have to rank accordingly. But I’m interested in the DFS space, especially at suppressed ownership as people look to stack up the Lions/Packers game or pay up for great spots in Josh Allen (vs. MIA) and Jayden Daniels (at NYG).
Dalvin Cook, RB
Dalvin Cook made his season debut last week and was hardly used in a game in which presumed RB1 Rico Dowdle was a late scratch (illness). Dowdle will be back today, though Cook still has a path to a handful of Carrie’s with Ezekiel Elliott being left in Dallas due to disciplinary reasons.
The veteran back will get some work and that makes him intriguing in deep leagues where any role owns value, but in standard sized leagues, Cook is not only off the starting radar, he doesn’t need to be rostered.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB
Note: Ezekiel Elliott did not travel with the team due to disciplinary reasons. He will not be playing on Sunday.
Elliott held a 42.4% to 28.8% snap edge over Dalvin Cook (six catches for 12 yards in Week 8) last week. Maybe that hints that he is the slight percentage play moving forward should Rico Dowdle miss time. But that’s the lesser of two evils and would more than likely result in a situation where there isn’t a Dallas Cowboy ranked inside my top 30 at the position.
In playing, or even rostering, the veteran running back, you’re chasing a score. Elliott is averaging a red-zone touch per game, but with his yards per carry before contact set to decline for a third consecutive season, it’s clear that Father Time has taken his pound of flesh from the one-time elite fantasy asset.
Rico Dowdle, RB
Dowdle was a late scratch on “Sunday Night Football” due to an illness and that left Dallas with an elite 2020 backfield.
The problem? It’s 2024.
The Ezekiel Elliott/Dalvin Cook duo ran for 46 yards on 16 carries and looked about as good as those numbers would suggest. Dowdle out-carried Elliott 20-6 in his last fully healthy game (Cook was inactive), establishing himself as the man atop this depth chart.
Of course, reasonable minds can disagree if that role is meaningful for fantasy football purposes. Dallas ranks eighth in pass rate over expectation, and with the Falcons ranked second-best in terms of yards per running back target, there aren’t many parts of this matchup that I like.
Dowdle’s versatility and relative youth make him my favorite from this backfield, but that doesn’t mean he’s a must-start. I have the fifth-year back ranked as a middling Flex play, ranking in the same tier as RB2s on their own rosters like Austin Ekeler, Raheem Mostert, and his opponent this week in Tyler Allgeier.
CeeDee Lamb, WR
Lamb is easily pacing for a third straight season north of 150 targets, and the Cowboys showed last week that they aren’t shy about going in that direction on every single down once they establish him early until the opposition proves they have an answer.
He accounted for the majority of Dallas’ receptions last week in San Francisco, not an outcome that most have in their profiles. The Falcons haven’t yet allowed a receiver to crack 19 PPR fantasy points this season, but they’ve also struggled to keep opposing WR1s out of the end zone (Mike Evans, Rashee Rice, DK Metcalf, and Diontae Johnson all scored in this matchup).
You’re splitting hairs at the top of the WR board every week. Lamb checks in as my WR4 (my WR1 Tier 1 is five players long), and while I’ll pay up elsewhere in a DFS setting, no one is going to have a problem with you going in this direction.
Jalen Tolbert, WR
I maintain my thought that Tolbert’s role as the WR2 in this offense gives him a path to Flex value (he’s produced over expectations in five straight games), but even I can’t express much in the way of short-term optimism.
Despite the Cowboys ranking eighth in pass rate over expectation this season, Tolbert has crossed 50 receiving yards in just one of his past five games. Watching the 25-year-old is my suggestion, but I have no problem if you want to watch him from a distance.
Jake Ferguson, TE
Ferguson had zero air yards in Week 8 despite eight targets and has been held under 30 air yards in four straight. He’s an asset in PPR leagues, but the per-catch ceiling is low (zero touchdowns this season and nine catches for 34 yards over his past two games).
I’ll chase the usage (7+ targets in four of his past five) in the highest total game of the week. I hyped up Ferguson plenty this offseason, and it’s clear that I was over my skis, but I do think there is a reasonable floor that can be useful in PPR formats.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons Insights
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Strong second half? The on-field product is struggling right now, but this franchise does have back-to-back-to-back seasons with a four-game win streak in the second half of the season.
QB: Dak Prescott has been intercepted multiple times in three straight games, a first for him and the 11th time in the franchise has seen a QB do that. Only twice in their long history has it happened in four straight (Danny White in 1983 and Craig Morton in 1972).
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Dallas allowed pressure 25.8% of the time, a rate that has spiked in their three games since (37.3%).
Defense: The Cowboys are 2-3 over their past five games. In three games against teams favored to make the playoffs over that stretch, they’ve allowed 105 points (35 points per game). In the other two games, there were 32 points total. They face playoff hopefuls in each of the next four weeks (Falcons, Eagles, Texans, and Commanders).
Fantasy: Jake Ferguson had zero air yards in Week 8 despite eight targets and has been held under 30 air yards in four straight. He’s an asset in PPR leagues, but the per-catch ceiling is low (zero touchdowns this season, nine catches for 34 yards over his past two games).
Betting: Dallas has covered each of their past five road dome games, as well as the past three cashing under tickets.
Atlanta Falcons
Team: In Week 8, the Falcons improved to 3-0 following a loss this season, winning those games by five points.
QB: Kirk Cousins’ 62.4% quick pass rate is his highest since 2018, his first season with the Vikings.
Offense: Atlanta converted 3-8 third-and-long situations (seven-plus yards) in Week 5 against the Bucs; since then, they are just 2-15 in such spots.
Defense: The Falcons have the lowest sack rate in the NFL (2.2%), and it isn’t close (Carolina ranks 31st at 3.6%). We’ve only had two sub-3% sack teams over the past decade (the 2018 Raiders and the 2020 Titans).
Fantasy: I’m not overreacting, but Drake London posted the lowest aDOT of his season on Sunday (6.7 yards) with his second-lowest on-field target share (18.8%). Shorter routes typically correlate with more volume, not less, so this is at least something to monitor.
Betting: The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS at home this season, and they were fortunate to get that one (Week 5’s comeback win over the Bucs in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite).