The Dallas Cowboys will travel to take on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head over to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 49)
For the briefest of moments on Sunday Night Football, it felt like the Cowboys bye week may have helped them fix what ails them. Unfortunately, that proved not to be the case as the 49ers steamrolled them in the third quarter, scoring 21 unanswered points to completely change the shape of the matchup.
The Cowboys are now 3-4 and 25th in our PR+ standings.
The Atlanta Falcons may have won on Sunday to put themselves in a relatively commanding spot in the NFC South with two wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year, but they haven’t been convincing by any means. The Falcons sit 20th in PR+ with a 10th-ranked offense and 27th-ranked defense.
The good news for Atlanta is that the Cowboys are just as bad on defense and worse on offense. The Falcons should be able to continue padding their advantage over the Buccaneers this weekend as Tampa Bay faces the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Cowboys vs. Falcons has the potential to be high-scoring because neither defense is good, which is always a little scary. I like the Falcons to cover and the over to hit, but I prefer the play on the total.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Cowboys 24
Pick: Falcons -2.5 and Over 49
Cowboys at Falcons Game Insight
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Strong second half? The on-field product is struggling right now, but this franchise does have back-to-back-to-back seasons with a four-game win streak in the second half of the season.
QB: Dak Prescott has been intercepted multiple times in three straight games, a first for him and the 11th time in the franchise has seen a QB do that. Only twice in their long history has it happened in four straight (Danny White in 1983 and Craig Morton in 1972).
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Dallas allowed pressure 25.8% of the time, a rate that has spiked in their three games since (37.3%).
Defense: The Cowboys are 2-3 over their past five games. In three games against teams favored to make the playoffs over that stretch, they’ve allowed 105 points (35 points per game). In the other two games, there were 32 points total. They face playoff hopefuls in each of the next four weeks (Falcons, Eagles, Texans, and Commanders).
Fantasy: Jake Ferguson had zero air yards in Week 8 despite eight targets and has been held under 30 air yards in four straight. He’s an asset in PPR leagues, but the per-catch ceiling is low (zero touchdowns this season, nine catches for 34 yards over his past two games).
Betting: Dallas has covered each of their past five road dome games, as well as the past three cashing under tickets.
Atlanta Falcons
Team: In Week 8, the Falcons improved to 3-0 following a loss this season, winning those games by five points.
QB: Kirk Cousins’ 62.4% quick pass rate is his highest since 2018, his first season with the Vikings.
Offense: Atlanta converted 3-8 third-and-long situations (seven-plus yards) in Week 5 against the Bucs; since then, they are just 2-15 in such spots.
Defense: The Falcons have the lowest sack rate in the NFL (2.2%), and it isn’t close (Carolina ranks 31st at 3.6%). We’ve only had two sub-3% sack teams over the past decade (the 2018 Raiders and the 2020 Titans).
Fantasy: I’m not overreacting, but Drake London posted the lowest aDOT of his season on Sunday (6.7 yards) with his second-lowest on-field target share (18.8%). Shorter routes typically correlate with more volume, not less, so this is at least something to monitor.
Betting: The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS at home this season, and they were fortunate to get that one (Week 5’s comeback win over the Bucs in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite).