To wrap up NFL Week 6, we have the Kellen Moore revenge game on Monday Night Football, as the Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator will be coaching against his former team for the first time.
So far this season, the Dallas Cowboys offense has been worse without Moore as OC and is coming off their worst performance of the season in a 42-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
We have a short point spread for the Cowboys vs. Chargers tonight, with Dallas being a short road favorite.
Although they’ll have the travel and rest disadvantage, especially with the Chargers coming off their bye week, the over/under of Cowboys fans in attendance is well above 50%, with heavy juice on the over. But the rest advantage could be big for the Chargers here, as they’ll be getting back Austin Ekeler for the first time since Week 1 tonight.
Will this be a bounce-back spot for the Cowboys, particularly Dak Prescott and their offense, or will the Chargers get above .500 for the first time this season? Let’s get into the Cowboys vs. Chargers predictions, picks against the spread, player props, and more from the PFN betting team.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Cowboys -1.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys -125, Chargers +105 - Over/Under
51 - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
SoFi Stadium - How To Watch
ESPN, ESPN+
Blewis: On the surface, it seems like a good bounce-back spot for the Cowboys, but I think this is a favorable matchup for the Chargers, and I like the fact that they’re getting points. I grabbed them at +2.5 earlier this week.
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This Cowboys defense has looked very vulnerable in recent weeks, and as good as they are, might not be as elite as they looked earlier this season. They obviously don’t have Trevon Diggs anymore, but they also put LB Leighton Vander Esch on injured reserve earlier this week after he suffered a neck injury.
Not only are they a bit banged up, but they also benefited from a favorable schedule of quarterbacks earlier this season — Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, and Mac Jones — before Brock Purdy threw four touchdown passes against them. Tonight, they’ll be facing a well-rested Chargers offense that is getting Austin Ekeler back, which should be a major boost.
I spent all this time talking about why I’m fading the Cowboys without even mentioning how their offense is struggling. This Chargers defense obviously isn’t nearly as good as the 49ers, but I still don’t trust Dak Prescott and Co. to keep pace with Justin Herbert. I would still play this at Chargers +1.5.
Pick: Chargers +2.5 (-112 at FanDuel earlier this week)
Soppe: If Tony Pollard is running well tonight, then Dak Prescott’s numbers are going to underwhelm. Again. Heck, I’d argue that he’s in a spot to struggle regardless of the success of his run game.
The rested Chargers were above average in tackle percentage last season and are again this year. Put that next to Prescott’s aDOT dipping by 20.5% from last season (yards per completion are down 17.7% from the rate he produced during the Kellen Moore era), and it’s hard to see him impressing through the air.
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Pollard averages 24 carries per game this season when the game is not decided by 30+ points, something that I feel reasonably safe in assuming for this game. If we’re giving him that level of volume against a questionable run defense, the rest of the story writes itself.
Picks: Dak Prescott under 257.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Tony Pollard over 67.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: For the past three weeks, CeeDee Lamb has averaged six targets a game and caught exactly four passes for no more than 53 yards. There has been a ton of discourse out there regarding whether Lamb is truly an alpha receiver, whether he deserves more targets, and if there is a rift between him and Dak Prescott.
I believe Lamb is a legitimate WR1, and there is no issue between him and Prescott. I am also a big believer in the squeaky-wheel narrative.
The Cowboys have yet to play a normal game. Tonight’s contest is a virtual pick’em with a total north of 50 points. I think Prescott and the passing attack get back on track.
The Chargers are allowing 231 yards per game to wide receivers, the most in the league. Opponents throw deep against them 22.1% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league, and complete 51.4% of those throws, the ninth-best in the NFL. Give me all of Lamb’s overs in this one.
Picks: CeeDee Lamb over 68.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel), longest reception over 24.5 yards (-115 at Caesars), anytime touchdown scorer (+160 at FanDuel)
Bearman: When the pressure got real last Sunday night vs. the Niners, Prescott looked awful, throwing three interceptions.
The Chargers defense is not on the same planet as the 49ers, ranking dead last in pass defense, allowing nearly 300 yards per game. But I think they snag one off Dak at home, and only paying 30 cents in juice isn’t a high price to pay for one bad pass. All four of Dak’s picks have been on the road this season.
Pick: Dak Prescott to throw an interception (-130 at FanDuel)