The Dallas Cowboys had a spectacular 2023 regular season, finishing 12-5 and first in the NFC East.
Dak Prescott finished second in MVP voting, CeDee Lamb finished third in Offensive Player of the Year voting, and Micah Parsons finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Yet, the Cowboys’ season came to a screeching halt with an embarrassing playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers in Dallas.
2024 doesn’t seem as promising as 2023 once was, with contract disputes and not many additions to note.
Dallas Cowboys Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +1900
NFC Odds: +700
NFC East Odds: +160
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -145/Under +120)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -210/+170
Dallas Cowboys Offense
The Cowboys’ offense was unbelievably good this past season. They finished second in overall offensive EPA, first in passing, and 10th in rushing.
Prescott and Lamb were particularly effective against Cover 1, accounting for 5.36 EPA (expected points added) per game (No. 1 in the league).
The Cowboys’ two main losses come at left tackle and running back.
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Luckily, Tony Pollard wasn’t nearly as effective as previous years, ranking 33rd of 49 qualified running backs in rushing yards over expected per attempt.
Per Tru Media, future Hall of Famer Tyron Smith ranked 32nd of 163 pass blockers with over 300 pass-blocking snaps last year. He also ranked fourth in the league in run block win rate for offensive tackles, per ESPN.
While replacing someone of that caliber will be tough, the Cowboys have an absurd hit rate on the offensive line. Since 1989 — when Jerry Jones purchased the team — the Cowboys have drafted 14 offensive linemen in the first two rounds. They have 18 combined All-Pro nods and 1,426 games played (102 per player). This now includes 2024 first-round pick Tyler Guyton, who has yet to make his regular-season debut.
Throughout the pre-season, Guyton and interior O-lineman Cooper Beebe look the part.
Dallas Cowboys Defense
The Cowboys’ defense was also impressive in 2023, ranking sixth overall in EPA, ninth against the pass, and 10th against the run. The run defense, however, is slightly misleading as the Cowboys struggled mightily against the higher-powered rushing offenses like the Eagles and 49ers.
Against top-10 rushing offenses in 2023, the Cowboys ranked 19th in defensive rushing EPA. This isn’t an anomaly for the Cowboys either, as they ranked 18th in total defensive EPA against top-10 overall offenses.
One Betting Trend To Know
The Cowboys have gone over their projected win total in five of seven seasons with Prescott as quarterback.
The overall return if you were to bet $100 on the over each season would have been $1,031.67. The ROI would be 47.38%.
In these seven seasons, the over was plus money, showing that the public was generally lower on the Cowboys than oddsmakers.
Best Bet for Cowboys in 2024
The Cowboys didn’t improve much from last year and also had one of the easiest schedules in football.
Their run defense is alarmingly average, CeDee Lamb is not happy, and the future of this team looks like it is falling apart.
PLAYOFF PREDICTOR: Will Your Favorite NFL Team Make the Playoffs?
Missing the playoffs would be quite the drop for a team that is still extremely talented, but under 9.5 at +120 seems viable.
I also like Micah Parsons at +550 to win DPOY. He has been at the pinnacle of elite edge play and could get it this year.