Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is coming off an underwhelming season where many expected big things from him. Can new head coach Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson and this offense, resulting in Sutton becoming the guy he was supposed to be last year? What is his fantasy football projection?
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Courtland Sutton’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The hype surrounding Sutton last season was real. He started out as a guy going in the fifth or sixth round. By the time we got to the heart of fantasy draft season in late August/early September, Sutton was well into the third round. And I was all aboard. It was easily one of my biggest misses of the season.
Another year removed from his 2020 ACL tear and finally healthy, Sutton looked poised to explode with Wison at quarterback. Instead, Wilson looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and Sutton wasn’t unable to overcome it.
Wilson and the failed Nathaniel Hackett experiment certainly shoulder some of the blame. The Broncos ran an uncreative offense, and Sutton’s catchable target rate was outside the top 70. But we can’t absolve Sutton of all blame.
He didn’t play well, either. His 35.7% contested-catch rate was 69th in the league.
While Sutton did lead the Broncos with a 23.1% target share, he was only targeted on 21.8% of his routes run. That rate was 45th in the league, downright dreadful for a team’s WR1. Sutton averaged just 1.65 yards per route run, 50th in the league.
A big reason we can’t just blame the offense was the success of Jerry Jeudy. At this time last year, I was hyping up Sutton and burying Jeudy. Now, the roles are reversed due to new evidence.
In the same offense, Jeudy had a higher targets per route run rate, a higher yards per route run, and higher yards per target. Simply put, he was the better receiver.
It’s difficult to defend Sutton as the Broncos’ true alpha after just 64 catches for 829 yards and 2 touchdowns (10.6 PPR fantasy points per game). Jeudy operated under the same dismal offensive conditions and averaged 3.0 ppg more.
Should You Draft Courtland Sutton This Year?
One of the major lessons to be learned from the failed Sutton experiment of 2022 is the importance of value. It doesn’t matter how much you like a player if he becomes too expensive. Sutton was a great player to target when he had a fifth-round ADP. Once that crept into the third round, he was no longer worth it. It’s a mistake I won’t make again.
Before I go burying Sutton for this season, there is reason for more optimism. If anyone can fix this offense, it’s Sean Payton. Simply put, there’s no way this team is worse.
There’s also the matter of Sutton’s ADP. It’s all the way down at WR51, No. 134 overall. Those fantasy analysts that pushed back against the Sutton hype last season argued that the gap between Sutton and Jeudy should not have been as big as it was. Well, here we are again, except the sides have flipped.
I’m firmly on team Jeudy > Sutton this season. But a part of me will be perturbed if Sutton becomes the guy I thought he’d be.
Currently, I have Sutton at WR41. So, I’m well ahead of ADP. That said, he’s not someone I’m necessarily looking to draft. Every player has to be ranked at some point, though. Where I have Sutton is where I’d draft him. If he’s the top WR on my board and I need a wide receiver, I’m okay with going back to the well one more time. The price tag carries little risk.
August 24 Update: Jeudy left practice on a cart after injuring his hamstring. Currently, the severity is unknown. If Jeudy is forced to miss a chunk of the season, Sutton would likely land somewhere around WR30 for me. You will see a second update below this one as soon as we have more clarity on the situation.
