Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton was a pretty good value in fantasy football last season after largely being written off following a lackluster 2022 campaign.
A much better performer with Jerry Jeudy off the field, Sutton is poised to be the clear top target on a team with a very uncertain QB situation.
Should fantasy managers target Sutton in drafts?
Should You Select Courtland Sutton at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 115th Overall (WR47)
- Post-Hype Sleeper: Courtland Sutton was largely dismissed by fantasy managers heading into last season but managed to outperform expectations. However, his production was largely touchdown-dependent, scoring 10 times on just 59 receptions.
- Opportunity Without Jeudy: Sutton’s fantasy production has been significantly better without Jerry Jeudy on the field. With Jeudy now in Cleveland, Sutton is poised to be the clear WR1 for the Broncos, which could lead to increased targets.
- ADP Analysis: Sutton is currently being drafted as WR47, No. 115 overall. While there’s some potential value at this ADP, it’s hard to project a career year for Sutton at age 29, especially with a rookie quarterback under center.
- Final Verdict: Sutton is a known commodity with limited upside. While he’s a viable late-round pick, fantasy managers may want to prioritize younger receivers with greater potential for a breakout season.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Courtland Sutton
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Sutton is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
43) Courtland Sutton, WR | Denver Broncos
44) Keon Coleman, WR | Buffalo Bills
45) Rome Odunze, WR | Chicago Bears
46) Curtis Samuel, WR | Buffalo Bills
47) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
48) Jameson Williams, WR | Detroit Lions
Courtland Sutton’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Sutton has the physical profile of a classic outside X receiver. Back in 2019, he sure looked to be on the path to stardom. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in 2020 and wasn’t himself yet in 2021. Ahead of the 2022 season, though, the hype was massive, especially given the team’s acquisition of Russell Wilson.
Sadly, things didn’t work out as expected. Wilson’s play declined. Sutton did not resemble the potentially dominant receiver we remembered from 2019. As a result, he only averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game.
Having not been a large fantasy factor for four years, managers were not excited about Sutton last season. Naturally, he outperformed expectations. However, that needs to be taken in the proper context.
While Sutton’s 11.9 points per game represented a positive return on investment, it didn’t exactly move the needle. Plus, Sutton wasn’t dominating. He just happened to score a lot of touchdowns on not a lot of receptions.
Sutton’s 20.3% target share was 38th in the NFL, but he was only targeted on 20.2% of his routes run (49th), scoring 10 times on a mere 59 catches.
Ironically, despite Wilson’s struggles, Sutton actually had one of the higher catchable target rates in the league.
I maintain Sutton could have been a high-level fantasy producer had things broken differently. But now, entering his age-29 season, it’s just hard to project anything other than what Sutton has been.
Is Sutton a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Typically, in the latter stages of fantasy drafts, the wide receivers are either struggling veterans, guys who were never good, or unproven young players. In 2024, there are actually a fair amount of older players who actually have plausible upside.
I’m not saying Sutton is likely to pan out, but he sure carries more potential than your typical late-round veteran WR.
Since 2021, Sutton has averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game in 38 games with Jeudy active against 15.2 fantasy points per game in games without Jeudy. Jeudy is now in Cleveland. If Sutton can merely split the difference in 2024, he will be a tremendous value at his WR49 ADP, No. 93 overall, which represents the lowest mark of his career. It’s just difficult to project a career year at age 29.
Sutton has another obstacle in his path as well — his quarterback. There’s not a ton of competition for targets, which should enable Sutton to command a lot of them. However, they will be coming from rookie Bo Nix.
Although the Broncos spent a first-round pick on the Oregon QB, Nix was the sixth quarterback drafted. Could he surprise as a rookie? Perhaps. But it’s hard to get overly excited about what Sutton can do on an offense likely to run a lot with a mobile rookie QB.
I have Sutton ranked as my WR49, which is two spots below his WR47 ADP — an irrelevant distinction. In that right spot, I’m not opposed to taking him. However, generally, I want to take chances on younger, less established players who have wider ranges of outcomes.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where Sutton ends up being a difference-maker. There are several young WRs going around him that have greater upside. Those are the players fantasy managers should look to draft.