Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is coming off an incredibly disappointing season. Fresh off a missed season due to a torn ACL, Sutton looked fine physically but didn’t produce on the field. With big changes to the Broncos’ offense this offseason, what is Sutton’s fantasy football outlook for 2022, and should managers target him at his ADP in fantasy drafts?
Courtland Sutton’s fantasy outlook for 2022
I’m still reeling after how disastrous Sutton’s 2021 campaign was. He was a player I planted my flag on, and to say he let me down would be a massive understatement. Sutton averaged just 8.8 PPR fantasy points per game. He was unstartable in standard-sized fantasy leagues, finishing outside the top 48 wide receivers.
In Sutton’s defense, no Broncos WR was startable. Denver ran the sixth-fewest plays per game and had the 11th-highest run rate in the league. I truly place none of the blame on Sutton.
Sutton will be 27 years old this season, but he’s still very much in his prime. Wide receivers also typically play much better in their second year removed from ACL surgery. This is still a player that put up 1,112 receiving yards on 72 receptions in 2019.
Entering 2022, I’m back in on Sutton. The Broncos’ front office recognized how anemic their offense was last season and made wholesale changes. They fired their head coach and replaced him with Nathaniel Hackett, who spent the previous three seasons working with Aaron Rodgers. The Broncos should throw more and play quicker this season.
How the Broncos’ depth chart impacts Courtland Sutton’s fantasy projection for the season
The biggest move the Broncos made this offseason was finally solving their quarterback situation. For the first time since Peyton Manning retired, the Broncos have themselves a franchise quarterback. The team traded Drew Lock, Noah Fant, and draft picks to the Seahawks for Russell Wilson.
Wilson is a complete game-changer for Sutton. While certainly not a direct 1-to-1 comparison, it’s reasonable to look at Sutton and Jerry Jeudy like Wilson’s new version of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
In Seattle, Wilson was constrained by Pete Carroll’s antiquated 1970s offense that refused to let him throw the ball. Yet, he still managed to lead Metcalf (and Lockett) to a WR1 season in 2020. Wilson had a down year last season, but Metcalf still averaged 14.4 ppg.
Sutton is better than Jerry Jeudy
Initially, most fantasy analysts preferred Jeudy to Sutton this season. That has since flipped. I believe Sutton is the better player.
Metcalf was Wilson’s primary target in Seattle, and Sutton is projected to play that role for him in Denver. Jeudy is going to produce as well, but at 6’3″, 218 pounds, Sutton profiles more as the alpha outside receiver that can dominate downfield. Sutton is admittedly more volatile than Jeudy, but Sutton’s ceiling is inside the top 12.
It looked like we could see targets shared in this offense early in the offseason. However, injury to Tim Patrick and ambiguity over the role of Albert Okwuegbunam has really made this a top-heavy situation in terms of pass catchers for Wilson. Now, where have we heard that before?
Sutton’s ADP for 2022
I’m really not sure what to make of Sutton’s ADP. Depending on the platform, you can find him anywhere from the late fourth round all the way down to the sixth round. In a best-case scenario, Sutton can return second-round value. That’s about his ceiling and is reflected in his RB13 and 31st overall ranking in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings. Since I’m always chasing upside, I want Sutton this season.
You won’t find many players in the fourth round or later with the type of upside Sutton possesses. He’s being drafted around the WR23. Collectively, we have him ranked as a high WR2. Fantasy managers should have no qualms about drafting Sutton as early as the front end of the fourth round.