The bounce-back 2023 campaign for Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton felt like a nice fantasy story but didn’t exactly generate enough production to get managers excited about his outlook heading into his seventh NFL season.
Can Sutton build off of his successful first year in Sean Payton’s system and outperform fantasy football expectations again in 2024?
Courtland Sutton’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Sutton’s 59 receptions for 772 yards and 10 touchdowns were good enough to produce a WR35 fantasy finish last year, which felt like a major success given the production we saw from Denver’s offense over the miserable 2022 season.
Yet, Sutton’s bounce-back year was still a far cry away from his WR19 finish in 2019, where he registered 72 receptions for 1,112 receiving yards and six scores. Through his first six years in the league, he’s topped 1,000 yards receiving on just one occasion and has never caught 75 passes in a season.
Could this be a volume issue? Absolutely.
Sutton has seen 100+ targets in a season just twice in his career. Over the last five years, he and Adam Thielen are the only wide receivers to score 10 touchdowns on fewer than 100 targets.
For the record, Sutton saw just 90 targets last season, which means he scored a touchdown on every nine targets. This feels like a tough rate to sustain year over year, especially when operating in an offense that doesn’t have great quarterback play.
Speaking of the QB position, Denver parted ways with Russell Wilson this offseason and selected Bo Nix at No. 12 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft to compete for the starting role with Jarret Stidham and Zach Wilson. The jury isn’t out on Nix quite yet, but that collection of signal-callers doesn’t exactly get most onboard with a breakout fantasy year coming from Sutton.
The best thing going for Sutton is his lack of target competition on this roster. The Broncos traded Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns this offseason, forcing Denver to elevate players like Marvin Mims Jr., Tim Patrick, or rookie Troy Franklin into an expanded role in this passing game.
Assuming Sutton doesn’t get into a major contract dispute with Denver’s front office, he’s well positioned for a very healthy target share in 2024. Yet, his bounce-back campaign hasn’t resulted in a whole lot of fantasy buzz heading into the 2024 NFL season.
Sutton’s ADP of No. 116 overall (WR47) suggests he’s flying under the radar as the Broncos’ potential top option in the passing game. For some additional context, he’s being drafted after Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and rookie Rome Odunze in the same range.
One could certainly make the argument that Sutton is the best one positioned to be Denver’s alpha target earner when directly comparing him to other receivers in this range. That gives him the perception of a slightly higher fantasy floor than his contemporaries.
Yet, the production we’re going to get from the Broncos’ passing game in 2024 feels like a complete mystery. Whether it’s Nix, Stidham, or Wilson under center for Denver this year, the fantasy outlook doesn’t feel very exciting.
Sutton may be the best bet on the roster to see 100+ targets this year, but potential TD regression and other young options on the depth chart potentially emerging this year make him a solid Flex option. However, he lacks the truly elite potential to be counted on as much more than a nice depth piece for your fantasy roster in 2024.