As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Courtland Sutton.
Courtland Sutton’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
There’s no denying Sutton was a colossal disappointment in 2022. The only wide receiver I wanted more of last season was Michael Pittman Jr. While neither worked out to the levels I expected, Sutton was the far greater underperformer.
Obviously, things didn’t exactly work out with Sutton. Wilson’s exponential decline contributed greatly to Sutton’s failure to launch, but it would be unfair to absolve Sutton of all blame when the other half of his WR duo was able to overcome it.
Sutton was treated every bit like the alpha WR1 I thought he’d be. He saw a team-high 23% target share and ran a route on 100% of the Broncos’ pass plays. Sutton’s 12.8 average depth of target was 22nd in the league. He saw 25 downfield targets, 11th in the league. I was very pleased with the way Sutton was used. I was not pleased with the results.
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Just 72% of Sutton’s targets were deemed catchable. That mark was outside the top 70. By contrast, that number was 80% for Jeudy, inside the top 30. The QB play was poor across the board, but Wilson seemed to struggle more when targeting Sutton as opposed to Jeudy.
As a result, Sutton’s catch rate was again below 60%. Between the Broncos being a team with an average pass rate (16th in the league) and a below-average pace (they ran the 14th-fewest plays per game), Sutton never really had much of a chance.
At this point, though, it’s hard for me to make more excuses for Sutton. He’s entering his sixth NFL season and will turn 28 years old before the end of 2023.
The true breakout hasn’t happened yet. Sure, he averaged 13.9 ppg as a sophomore in 2019, but that was four years ago. His best season since then was the 10.6 ppg he averaged last year. That’s nowhere near good enough.
Courtland Sutton’s Fantasy Ranking
I’d be very surprised if Sutton wasn’t better in 2023 than he was in 2022. But I no longer have WR1 aspirations for Sutton. If he can merely post a WR2 season — the season Jeudy just posted — that would be a win.
Sutton has three more years left on his contract. However, if he has another lackluster season — especially if Wilson really isn’t good anymore — Denver will likely trade or release Sutton in the 2024 offseason. His dead cap hit goes from $25.5 million now to just $7.6 million if they cut him next year.
Of course, if Sutton is getting cut, especially given the relative reasonableness of his contract, it likely means he didn’t play well enough for a team to want to trade for him. Thus, he’s not exactly a desirable fantasy asset.
Fantasy managers really have no choice but to sit tight with Sutton. If you have him, hope he turns it around. There likely isn’t going to be value in trading him away, and I certainly wouldn’t advise trading for a 27-year-old sixth-year wide receiver who has just one WR3 season on his résumé.
We have Sutton ranked 10 spots behind Jeudy at WR40 (No. 103 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. At that price, the risk is very low. I still think high WR2 is within Sutton’s range of outcomes, even if it’s not as plausible as it was at this point last year. I’m OK taking a shot on Sutton in dynasty startup drafts.