Despite having an ADP much lower than Jerry Jeudy last season, Courtland Sutton vastly outproduced his WR counterpart. With Jeudy now in Cleveland, Sutton is poised for a massive target share from a presently unknown QB. Does this uncertainty make him a value in fantasy football?
Courtland Sutton’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
It feels like Sutton’s breakout season, in which he averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game, was so long ago. Well, that’s because it was.
Back in 2019, Sutton was on the path to becoming a future WR1. He had all the physical tools, a natural rookie-to-sophomore-year progression, and the talent to be a fantasy start.
Then, Sutton tore his ACL in 2020, and he was hampered by the injury in 2021. It wasn’t until 2022 that he started to look more like himself. The hype surrounding Sutton was quite high in 2022, especially following the team’s addition of Russell Wilson.
Unfortunately, Wilson was no longer the prolific quarterback he was in Seattle. The state of the Denver Broncos offense had deteriorated, resulting in Sutton averaging just 10.6 fantasy points per game.
Courtland Sutton has been targeted 79 times in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — 10th-most among NFL WRs (via @IE_NFL) pic.twitter.com/9C3OeyHk7f
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 13, 2023
Last year, Sutton was largely written off, having not been very productive in four years. He bounced back slightly with 11.9 fantasy points per game. But overall, there’s not a lot to be excited about.
Sutton still finished outside the top 36 wide receivers, and to get him to 11.9 points per game, it took 10 touchdowns. The scores were exclusively keeping Sutton’s fantasy value afloat.
Sutton’s 20.3% target share was 38th in the NFL. He was only targeted on 20.2% of his routes run (49th), and he caught a mere 59 passes for 772 yards.
Ironically, despite Wilson’s struggles, Sutton actually had one of the higher catchable target rates in the league. I maintain Sutton could have been a high-level fantasy producer had things broken differently. But now, entering his age 29 season, it’s just hard to project anything other than what he’s been.
Should You Draft Sutton in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Sutton enters the 2024 season with the lowest ADP of his career. He’s barely going inside the top 48 receivers. There’s very little risk in drafting the veteran wideout, but is there some upside?
Jerry Jeudy is now gone, traded to the Cleveland Browns. While Sutton has always been the better receiver, Jeudy’s presence has had a negative impact on Sutton’s fantasy production.
Since 2021, Sutton has averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game in 38 games, with Jeudy active against 15.2 fantasy points per game in games without Jeudy. If Sutton can merely split the difference in 2024, he will be a tremendous value at cost.
The problem with projecting anything substantial from Sutton is the Broncos’ unknown quarterback situation. As of now, they don’t even have a projected starter. Denver is undoubtedly going to draft one, but absent a trade, they are currently not in a position to get one of the projected immediate starters.
KEEP READING: Courtland Sutton Dynasty Fantasy Profile
Given how important a team’s QB situation is for fantasy production, especially at wide receiver, it’s very difficult to make any confident claims about what Sutton might do in 2024.
As of now, that makes Sutton purely a value proposition. If it’s late enough in your draft and you don’t see anyone you like more than Sutton, go ahead and take him. But I would stop short of calling him someone fantasy managers need to prioritize.