Both Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill are on pace for historic receiver seasons. At various points throughout the season, each were on track to hit 2,000 receiving yards. At the moment, with five games left to go, Hill is on pace for 1,953 yards, and Jefferson is on pace for 1,809 yards.
Both would be incredible marks and would lead the league in most seasons — they rank second and sixth all-time. In yards per game, they rank fifth and 14th since 1978, the end of the NFL’s dead-ball era.
With the possibility of 2,000 yards in the offing, it’s worth asking if it’s possible that a receiver could win the NFL MVP award, something that has never happened in the history of the honor, regardless of the organization handing it out.
Can Non-Quarterbacks Win the MVP?
Even before the modern bend towards rewarding quarterbacks, it was difficult for a non-quarterback to win MVP. The two organizations that have awarded MVPs — the Associated Press and Pro Football Writers of America — have awarded 113 total MVP awards in that time, with some years featuring double-winners for one or both organizations.
Of those 113, 78 have been quarterbacks, or 69%. Running backs have won it 27.4% of the time, while no wide receiver has. In the past 20 years, there have been 39 awarded MVPs — seven have been running backs and the rest have been quarterbacks (82.1%).
The seven awarded MVPs for running backs were given to Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Jamal Lewis. Lewis and Peterson cracked 2,000 yards rushing, while Alexander hit 1,880 yards and 28 total touchdowns. Tomlinson managed 2,300 yards from scrimmage and 31 total touchdowns.
In short, the bar for running backs is high, and there’s a reason no RB has won it since Peterson. Not only do backs have to hit near-record numbers, but they’ve also had to do it in a season without a clear QB front-runner.
MORE: NFL MVP Odds 2022
When Chris Johnson hit 2,000 yards in 2009 or Derrick Henry did it in 2020, neither won the award. In fact, neither received any MVP votes among the members of the Associated Press.
In 2009, votes instead went to Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning (who won the award). The 2020 vote, meanwhile, split between Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and the winner Aaron Rodgers.
Yards from scrimmage are not a very good determinant, either. Johnson set the record for yards from scrimmage in 2009 while Christian McCaffrey’s mark in 2019 — third best in league history — earned essentially nothing in the MVP race.
The PFWA has been in lockstep with the AP since 2004, so the process for predicting one is the same as predicting the other. And right now, things look tough for wide receivers.
What Would a WR Need To Win MVP?
Despite the evidence that suggests that top receivers contribute more to wins than top running backs and the fact that top receivers are now earning more yards than top running backs (on fewer touches), it’s hard to envision a WR winning.
Calvin Johnson’s 1,964-yard season happened to be the same year as Peterson’s MVP run, but Cooper Kupp’s 1,947-yard season didn’t receive much recognition in the MVP race last year, though he did receive one vote from the Associated Press.
There are two complicating factors that limit receiver potential in the MVP race. First, any receiver generating enormous yardage will typically have a high-quality QB driving those yards. And while voters won’t necessarily vote for the quarterback in that instance, they may discount the receiver in the eyes of the voters in a way that a great offensive line doesn’t for a running back.
This happened to some degree to Kupp, and it also impacted Jerry Rice’s 1,848-yard season in San Francisco, Isaac Bruce’s 1,781-yard season with the Rams, Michael Thomas’ 1,725-yard season in New Orleans, and Marvin Harrison’s 1,722-yard season with the Colts.
The second limitation is that wide receivers typically don’t get many touchdowns compared to running backs. This isn’t because receivers are worse at scoring, but because offenses are more likely to run the ball near the goal line, where touchdowns are more common, and don’t typically spread out their carries between multiple RBs the way they split their targets among multiple WRs when in the red zone.
The closest we’ve seen a receiver get in terms of total touchdowns is Randy Moss in 2007 with 23. And the voters were right to choose his quarterback, Tom Brady, that year instead.
This is despite the fact that 2,000-yard seasons among rushers are more common than 1,900-yard seasons for receivers. That may be changing because of the decreased commitment to running the ball along with the additional game in the season, but it’s still a rare accomplishment that doesn’t receive much recognition.
MORE: Who Reigns Supreme in Breaking Calvin Johnson’s Record Between Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill?
In order for a WR to win MVP, that player would have to demonstrate that he was the driver of the offense and responsible for the quarterback’s yards instead of vice versa. He would likely have to set a record in total receiving yards and he would have to score.
In recent years, running backs have either needed 25+ touchdowns or 2,000+ yards. That has been a common theme since Barry Sanders won it in 1997, and that’s not enough by itself.
Eric Dickerson happened to have his 2,000-yard season when Dan Marino was putting together the best QB season the league had ever seen to that point, and Emmitt Smith’s 25-touchdown season lost to Brett Favre in 1995 when Favre broke 4,000 yards and threw for 38 touchdowns.
So a receiver would need to prove he was more than his supporting cast, likely set a league record in receiving yards, and do so in a year where quarterback play was less impressive. He also would probably need more touchdowns than you’d expect a receiver to have.
The good news for both Jefferson and Hill is that this is a down year for quarterbacking, and voters might be looking for an excuse to look away from the position. Jefferson has been receiving much more praise than his quarterback, Kirk Cousins, and though Tua Tagovailoa has earned plaudits for his play, there’s a good chance Hill will get credit for what he’s done.
Then again, Tagovailoa is leading the NFL in Pro Bowl voting.
The bad news is that neither seems to be on a touchdown pace commensurate with potential MVP candidates. At this pace, they will score between seven and nine touchdowns on the season — not quite the numbers we might expect from an MVP candidate from a non-QB position.
Should Non-QBs Win the MVP?
If we’re going to talk about positional value when discussing the most valuable player award, it doesn’t make sense to look away from quarterback. QBs are so overwhelmingly important to the success of their team that true fidelity to the name of the award would demand that voters select a quarterback every time.
But that violates the spirit of the award and is frankly boring. The Associated Press already recognizes the best QB in the NFL — that’s what the All-Pro team does. Even creating an additional award for the top quarterback in the country would make sense.
But the MVP is meant to be open to every player, and a slavish commitment to the letter of the law with the award eliminates that possibility.
If we treated the award more like a “Most Outstanding Player” award, it would lead to more interesting debates and expand the list of players we honor and learn about.
If that were the case, it would be much harder to make the case for Jefferson or Hill. Certainly, the two of them have the best production case among offensive players, but it might be easier to point to someone like Micah Parsons as more deserving. Good arguments could be made for Aaron Donald, Nick Bosa, Jason Kelce, or Travis Kelce – all of whom seem to be having better seasons than Hill or Jefferson.
MORE: List of Each NFL MVP Winner By Year
Reasonable people could disagree with that, and that’s much more interesting. Those discussions could teach us much more about football, but instead, we limit ourselves to debating between two or three quarterbacks.
Yes, moving the focus in the MVP debate from the “V” in the award would seem counterintuitive, but we’re talking about a sport called football, where the foot rarely propels the ball. And when it does, it’s more often a failure than a success.
Picking the best quarterback doesn’t even identify the “most valuable” player. Otherwise, voters would choose the best QB on a rookie deal. That player is a good deal more “valuable” than the best quarterback making $40 million a year. But the commitment to the naming scheme of the award arbitrarily stops before getting to something of real value.
Instead, it would be much better for football discourse to drop the pretense entirely and talk about the best players in football and reward them for it.
But for now, it seems unlikely.