Josh Allen has been nothing short of special. He has been a top-two fantasy football quarterback in each of the past three seasons (pacing the position in ppg over that stretch) and is just 27 years old.
During those three seasons, he ranks fourth in passing yards and 13th (among all players) in rushing scores, ahead of every-down backs like Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders, and David Montgomery. He’s been the model of fantasy consistency (over 16 points in 87.8% of his games during this run) while offering elite upside (league-best 13 contests with 30+).
Is it all too good to be true? Or is rostering Allen simply unstoppable? Let’s explore both trains of thought before deciding. Leave your preconceived notions at the door and walk with me through the construction of both arguments.
Did you get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure what to do? Make championship-winning decisions with PFN’s FREE Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator!
Josh Allen Is Regression-Proof
“The only rule is that there is an exception to every rule.”
The Regression Monster is a poor man’s version of Father Time. While Father Time remains undefeated, the Regression Monster has a very good record, though it is not flawless. Allen has set the bar remarkably high, but he is unique in a number of ways, and that makes him a candidate to defeat math.
Compared to the two seasons prior, most of Allen’s 2022 passing metrics were as expected. From yards per pass to touchdown rate, his profile from last season checks out. In fact, you could argue that he has room to grow, as the Bills were one of three teams to average more than two passing touchdowns per game.
Combine natural regression in that regard with Dalton Kincaid adding another viable pass catcher to this aggressive offense, and another season with roughly 4,500 passing yards and 35 passing scores is more than obtainable.
Of course, the rushing numbers are what allow Allen’s fantasy stock to soar. They, too, appear to be reasonably stable. For his career, he’s averaged 7.1 carries for 40.1 yards per game and scores every other contest. If we extend those numbers, a rushing line in the vicinity of 700 yards and eight touchdowns makes sense … and is basically a carbon copy of what he’s done in each of the past two years.
Drilling down on those ever-fickle rushing scores (at least six of them in all five of his NFL seasons) … for his career, his average rushing touchdown checks in at 7.0 yards, with half of them coming from three yards or closer. The moral of that story is that he’s not banking on those big outlier runs (i.e. Justin Fields).
Allen’s fullback style of running is built into this offense, and that should remain the case until we see any sort of physical decline. Could that happen midseason? Sure, but projecting as much from a 27-year-old isn’t the play.
Josh Allen Is Going To Regress in 2023
“The bad news is nothing lasts forever. The good news is nothing lasts forever.”
The great philosopher J. Cole speaks the truth and could well have been answering a question about Allen’s fantasy football value when he offered this bit of wisdom. OK, maybe not, but it fits. With the explosion of analytics, NFL teams are as smart now as they’ve ever been, and that leads me to believe that defenses could elect to blitz Allen at a higher rate in 2023.
Josh Allen’s completion rate vs. blitz:
- 2020 — 66.2%
- 2021 — 57.1%
- 2022 — 53.8%
This decline makes sense. With a blitz comes pressure, and with pressure comes less time to throw the ball. In those situations, Gabe Davis doesn’t have enough time to work downfield, and Stefon Diggs’ route-running skills aren’t as advantageous.
In 2020, Allen had 18 touchdowns and two interceptions on 207 attempts against the blitz, but in the two seasons since, he has had 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions on 306 attempts. That’s not to suggest that Allen can’t hurt defenses when blitzed, but the odds of him doing so are lesser, so it stands to reason that the league will try to exploit these trends.
Also working against Allen are some efficiency stats. Last season, 9.7% of his completions resulted in touchdowns, a sizeable spike from his 8.3% career rate prior. That may not seem like a huge deal, but if you apply that rate to his 2022 season, you’re knocking off five touchdown passes.
Digging even further into that train of thought uncovers some unsustainable downfield production. In 2021, just five of Allen’s 33 completions of 20+ yards down the field (15.2%) resulted in a touchdown. That’s a fine rate, but last season, his rate skyrocketed to 29% (9 of 31).
For you weather savants out there, the Bills have only one game in the second half of the fantasy season that is unlikely to carry some risk (Week 16 at LAC). Outside of that game, this finesse offense has road games in Philadelphia and Kansas City, along with four home games in beautiful — but often compromised — Upstate New York.
Final Verdict
While I do think the past few seasons have been at the high end of what we can expect from Allen, expecting his fantasy value to fall off some sort of cliff isn’t wise. He enters the season as my top-ranked quarterback, thanks in large part to this offense being tailored to his specific strengths and his specific strengths being very fantasy friendly.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to touch Allen’s rushing totals, and Jalen Hurts is going to have to prove to me that his passing gains from last season are sustainable.
