The Detroit Lions completely overhauled their backfield ahead of the upcoming season. Out are Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. In are David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In an offense many project to be one of the best in the league, is there a path for Gibbs to finish as a top-10 RB in fantasy football this season?
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Does Jahmyr Gibbs Have Top-10 Fantasy Upside?
Last season’s RB10, Rhamondre Stevenson, averaged 14.7 PPR fantasy points per game. That was actually a pretty weak performance for a top-10 running back. Historically, the threshold for a top-10 finish has been around 16 ppg. We’re going with that as our goal for Gibbs this season. So, can Gibbs get to 16 ppg?
A good starting point is how the Lions deployed Swift during his three years with the team. Well, not all three years. We don’t want to impart anything the Lions did with Swift following his 2021 shoulder injury. It appears that was the point at which the Lions gave up on him.
From Weeks 1-11 in the 2021 season, Swift was averaging over a 70% snap share. He was the clear lead back and trending toward being a perennial fantasy RB1. In Week 12, he hurt his shoulder.
From the moment he returned in Week 17 throughout the remainder of his tenure in Detroit — the entire 2022 season — Swift never crested a 70% snap share again. His average snap share was just 41.8% last season.
With that said, Swift’s first 11 weeks of 2021 can be very helpful in projecting Gibbs. At that point, the Lions clearly believed in Swift as their lead back. In that season, he averaged 16.1 ppg, finishing as the RB8.
Of course, Gibbs to Swift is not exactly a one-to-one comparison. Swift is 212 pounds, fully capable of being a three-down back. At 199 pounds, Gibbs probably isn’t. We just don’t see running backs below 210 pounds utilized as feature backs.
However, Swift didn’t see bell-cow usage. Even in 2021, Swift averaged fewer than 12 carries per game. His real value was as a receiver, where he saw an 18.4% target share. That is also Gibbs’ path to a top-10 finish.
As Swift showed us in 2021, it’s possible to finish inside the top 10 without a large workload on the ground. My projections for Gibbs don’t even have him at 10 carries per game. I’ve got him carrying the ball just 165 times for 843 yards.
In the air, I have Gibbs at a 15% target share, which is a fair amount lower than Swift’s 2021 target share. I’ve got him at 68 receptions for 542 yards. In terms of total touchdowns, I have him scoring 8.6 touchdowns. So, on just 233 total touches, all of that comes out to 15.2 ppg and an RB16 finish.
How Likely Is Jahmyr Gibbs To Finish Inside the Top 10?
Given that my projection is just 0.8 ppg short of the number we’re looking for, there’s no denying Gibbs has top-10 potential. It’s also not overly difficult to see how he gets there.
Gibbs will be sharing a backfield with Montgomery. Currently, just about everyone is projecting Montgomery for the Williams role — early-down work and goal-line carries. Obviously, that could seriously limit Gibbs’ touchdown potential.
Last season, Williams led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 17. Swift only saw four goal-line carries all season. Yet, he still managed eight touchdowns in 14 games. How? Swift is still an explosive player.
Similarly, Gibbs and his blazing 4.36 speed should be able to score 8-10 times on playmaking alone. There’s also the possibility he sees more goal-line work than expected. Or, perhaps Montgomery gets hurt, and due to the lack of an alternative, the Lions just use Gibbs more.
Even without more touchdowns, Gibbs can still find his way to a top-10 finish, too. All it would take is a few more receptions or a few more carries. Gibbs could very easily see 12 carries a game as opposed to the 9.7 I’ve projected him for. He also could see a similar to target share to Swift, especially considering the Lions’ lack of options in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Currently, Jared Goff is looking at Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta as his secondary pass catchers. Gibbs could easily be second on this team in targets behind St. Brown.
In Goff’s two seasons with the Lions, he’s targeted the running back position at rates of 23.3% and 20.6%. If 2023 is on the higher end of that range, we can reasonably assume the bulk of it will be Gibbs.
Overall, despite my RB16 projection for Gibbs, I believe my numbers are more on the conservative end of what he can do. Given that there are multiple paths to Gibbs seeing increased productivity, a top-10 finish is firmly within his realistic range of outcomes.
I will stop short of calling it likely, but the tantalizing upside is enough to make Gibbs a player I’m very interested in targeting in 2023 fantasy drafts.