As a rookie, Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson proved every bit capable of being a starting wide receiver in the NFL. Fantasy football managers have taken notice, projecting a sizable increase in productivity entering his second season. But is the hype overblown? Could Watson struggle with life after Aaron Rodgers and fall out out of the top-24 fantasy WRs?
Christian Watson Already Has a Top-24 ADP
As a rookie, Watson was impressive. He caught 41 passes for 611 yards and seven touchdowns. Surpassing 500 receiving yards bodes well for Watson’s future success, but he still averaged just 11.7 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR32. He did that with a completely unsustainable 17% touchdown rate.
The TD rate will undoubtedly come down, but the volume will go up. As a rookie, Watson saw just a 15.2% target share. But with Allen Lazard gone, Watson is locked in as the Packers’ WR1 and a good bet to lead the team in targets.
Watson’s WR19 ADP is baking in a ton of progression. Last year’s WR32 is not only projected to finish top 24 but expected to. As is the case in modern fantasy football, it’s far more difficult than it used to be to draft players ahead of breakouts — you have to pay for them in advance.
Christian Watson Comes With a Fair Amount of Risk in 2023
Things are much different in 2023 than they were in 2022. For starters, Rodgers is gone, replaced by Jordan Love, who is entering his fourth season but has started just one NFL game.
We have no way of knowing how Watson will mesh with Love. We also don’t know if Love will be any good. There’s a very real chance this offense is an outright disaster, scoring fewer than 35 total touchdowns.
My projections have Love throwing 25 touchdowns. I’ve got Watson accounting for 7.8 of them with a 22% target share. Overall, he came out to the WR22, averaging 14.1 ppg.
Based on my projections, Watson is teetering on the edge of being a top-24 WR. It wouldn’t take much for him to fall out of WR2 range entirely.
Last season, Watson’s 13.8 average depth of target and 2.4 yards per route run was 12th in the NFL. With more volume, his efficiency is likely to drop.
There’s also the aforementioned touchdowns issue. I project Watson scoring essentially the same amount of touchdowns on nearly double the volume. But he could just be a guy who always overperforms in the TD department. After all, he is 6’4″ with elite athleticism. However, if he’s not, Watson will need to at least maintain a league-average touchdown rate to be a top-24 wide receiver.
Then, there’s the matter of the Packers’ WR depth chart. Green Bay spent a second-round pick on Jayden Reed, and they still have Romeo Doubs, who played ahead of Watson to open the 2022 season. I’m not saying I think either Reed or Doubs is better than Watson, but it’s certainly within their range of outcomes to overtake him.
How Likely Is Watson To Finish Outside the Top-24 WRs This Season?
It’s very easy to paint the picture where Watson fails to establish himself as the Packers’ WR1 and ends up being a significant bust relative to his ADP, falling out of the top-24 WRs.
If he only sees something like an 18% target share and the Packers throw the ball less than expected, Watson will have a difficult time returning value.
With that said, sophomore wide receivers are historically very good investments. Physically, Watson has all the tools to excel in the NFL. He has great size and great speed. He proved himself enough as a rookie to expect natural second-year progression.
Reed is still a rookie, and I don’t believe Doubs is an NFL-caliber starting receiver. He projects more as a rotational WR3/4. Watson, meanwhile, looks like an alpha, and I believe he’ll be treated as such.
In fantasy football, we, as managers, need to make predictions. That’s what we’re doing here — predicting the future.
With Watson, my prediction is he goes on to be a very good NFL receiver. I don’t know if the top 12 is in the cards for him anytime soon, but given his performance as a rookie and the track record of Year 2 receivers, I would bet against Watson finishing outside the top 24 of fantasy wide receivers in 2023.
