For the past four years, Alexander Mattison has been nothing more than a pure handcuff to Dalvin Cook. However, every time Cook was hurt, Mattison performed just as well. With the Minnesota Vikings‘ backfield now to himself, could Mattison find his way into the top 10 running backs this season? If so, does that automatically make him a value in 2023 fantasy football drafts?
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There’s No Doubt Alexander Mattison Has Top-10 Upside
I like to consider myself to have a pretty good read not only on ADP but on how the fantasy community will react to major NFL news. For example, when DeAndre Hopkins signed with the Tennessee Titans, it was obvious his value would drop. When the Dallas Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott, it was obvious Tony Pollard’s value would increase.
Likewise, when the Vikings cut Cook, I fully expected Mattison’s value to skyrocket. Now, obviously, going from a handcuff to the clear starter, it did increase. Every single fantasy analyst moved Mattison up in their rankings, but what caught me by surprise was how much Mattison’s value increased — or rather, didn’t.
At this point, Mattison’s performance when replacing an injured Cook is well-documented. Since entering the league in 2019, Mattison has started for Cook six times. In those games, he’s averaged 20.4 PPR fantasy points per game, proving quite literally to be a 1-to-1 Cook replacement.
I don’t need to paint any picture as to how Mattison could end up as a fantasy RB1 this season. He’s not only been an RB1 without Cook, but he’s also been elite. For Mattison to finish as a top-10 RB in 2023, he won’t need to average 20 ppg, and no one is expecting him to. He just needs to get to around 16 ppg.
That’s why I was so surprised to see so many analysts cautioning against Mattison.
My projections have Mattison at 14.5 ppg, finishing as the RB19, which is his current ADP. While it would be imprudent to project Mattison’s six-game non-Cook sample size across a full season, this is almost 6.0 ppg lower.
For Mattison to find his way into the top 10, he would just need to see a little more rushing volume than I have projected, catch a few more passes, or score a couple more touchdowns. It’s far from a stretch, especially in light of Mattison’s past performance.
How Likely Is Mattison To Finish Inside the Top 10?
This is the trickier question. Given the anti-Mattison sentiment, it’s important to address the concerns of his critics because they exist for a reason.
Oftentimes, we see backup running backs with better efficiency metrics than the starters, which is understandable due to the limited volume. While Mattison averaged 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry over his first two seasons, respectively, that number dropped to 3.7 and 3.8 over the past two.
Operating under the same set of conditions as Cook, Mattison trailed him considerably in yards per carry, yards per touch, and percentage of carries to go 15+ yards.
Mattison’s speed score is below the 50th percentile. He’s not overly athletic, nor is he a great receiver. And despite his performance filling in for Cook over the past four years, he was never able to earn any meaningful standalone role. Whereas guys like Tony Pollard and Jaylen Warren have been able to increase their touches through performance, Mattison was always purely a backup.
The argument against Mattison is he’s a backup-caliber RB propped up by situation. As Chris Harris of Harris Football aptly put it, if the best argument for a player is “well there’s no one else there,” that’s not a great argument. And I agree.
With that said, situation does matter. The Vikings don’t have anyone established behind Mattison. Minnesota’s presumptive RB2, Ty Chandler, is a sophomore fifth-rounder. Behind him, they have 2021 fourth-round special-teamer Kene Nwangwu and rookie seventh-rounder DeWayne McBride.
If Mattison is bad, the Vikings will have no reason not to give some of these guys increased looks. I’m just not convinced Mattison is bad.
The Vikings’ offensive line gave Mattison 1.7 yards before contact, 0.3 fewer than Cook last season. The two had virtually the same percentage of their carries go for no yards or fewer (23% for Cook and 24% for Mattison). Mattison’s 31.5% evaded tackles per touch rate was over 10% better than Cook’s.
Additionally, metrics like these are often not that sticky year to year. It’s helpful to paint a picture of how a player performed, but I wouldn’t go assuming that Mattison is going to be the same player in 2023 as he was the two years prior.
Volume is king in fantasy football. We’ve seen backs far worse than Mattison be very useful fantasy assets on the heels of volume alone — ones that never displayed the ceiling Mattison already has.
Clearly, and surprisingly, I’m more pro-Mattison than most people out there. I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s likely to finish inside the top 10, but it’s firmly within his plausible range of outcomes.