As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We’re researching more than 350 players at PFN, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Cooper Kupp’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The seemingly magical chemistry between Matthew Stafford and Kupp has endured for only 30 regular-season and playoff contests, dating to the start of the 2021 campaign. Yet, it’s already netted them a degree of football immortality — especially for Kupp. Because his 30-game run has been, perhaps, the greatest 30-game run for a wide receiver in NFL history.
During this stretch, Kupp’s averaged 8.4 catches for 107.9 yards and 0.93 TDs. For context, in all-time-great Jerry Rice’s best back-to-back statistical seasons (1994 and 1995), including the playoffs, he averaged 7.3 catches for 102.7 yards and 0.89 TDs.
So it’s not enough to say Kupp has been “great” these past two years, or even elite. On a per-game basis, he’s produced as if he were the greatest wideout ever.
Of course, that’s an easily debatable opinion. Today’s NFL is more pass-happy than when Rice played.
But from a fantasy perspective, Kupp arguably has been as locked in as any WR in history. It’s tough to bet against him heading into 2023. He’s thrived because Stafford has been good enough and because the all-world receiver has had minimal competition, especially after Robert Woods went down for the season in 2021. A post-prime Odell Beckham Jr. alongside Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek posed no risk to Kupp’s firm position atop the food chain.
On the flip side, consider that Kupp will turn 30 this month and endured two season-ending injuries in his last five campaigns. Stafford is clearly a post-prime quarterback who cannot realistically recapture the magic of 2021.
And L.A. once again probably isn’t a playoff-caliber team. They’ll want to see what they have in rookie Puka Nacua and former second-round pick Tutu Atwell. And with Jefferson entering the final year of his rookie contract, assuredly the Rams are eyeing whether to re-sign him.
This team is probably playing more for 2024 and 2025 than for 2023. If the Rams plan to keep Kupp for the duration of his extensive and expensive contract, then there will be no good reason to overwork him late in the season. Similarly, injuries that he might have played through in 2021 could sideline him occasionally this year.
It’s a strange season for the Rams. Kupp is easily their best offensive asset, but if they find themselves with a 3-8 record in November, they’ll be hard-pressed to keep putting inordinate weight on a wideout who’s owed more than $65 million after this season and carries a dead-cap hit of $36.6 million in 2024 … when they’ll probably need Kupp to step up more as this franchise makes another push for legitimacy.
The Rams’ first five contests are collectively brutal, featuring road matchups versus the Seahawks, Bengals, and Colts, as well as home games against the 49ers and Eagles. A 1-4 record seems realistic — and with it, thoughts of engaging as sellers before the trade deadline, and a renewed commitment to rebuild.
Kupp should continue to post fantastic numbers, but it’s tough to believe he can continue this essentially unprecedented run. There’s a higher probability of hiccups than sustained elite production. There are more headwinds to overcome than ever.
Should You Draft Cooper Kupp This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Kupp with an ADP of WR4. When healthy, he should continue to dominate, or at least thrive. He’s an almost no-brainer top-12 WR with elite upside, providing the hamstring injury he suffered in practice doesn’t linger into the start of the season.
But the question remains: How long can Kupp keep this up?
Aside from Davante Adams, he’s the oldest of the top-20 preseason wide receivers. The Rams as a franchise are in limbo. They have to recommit to developing their younger receivers. They must do a better job establishing their ground game after averaging the seventh-fewest carries per game last season.
Investing in Kupp at his current market price leaves little room for upside. While that’s entirely normal for a seemingly elite receiver, Kupp faces more risks than other elites like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and even CeeDee Lamb.
We can envision all four of these guys hitting 110-1,500-12 receiving lines. But if I asked you which one is the highest injury risk, who would you say? If I asked you which one had the biggest liability at quarterback, who would you say? And if I asked you which one was most likely to play meaningless games in December and January, who would you say?
Based on a range of probabilities, Kupp has the most downward pressure on his market value. I would fade him at his current price.