Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp has been the undisputed best WR in fantasy when healthy over the past two seasons. The problem is Kupp’s elite WR1 status relies on not only his health but Matthew Stafford’s as well. Can the two stay healthy, propelling Kupp to another overall WR1 season? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Cooper Kupp’s 2023 Fantasy Outlook
Just two short years ago, Kupp put together the single greatest wide receiver season in fantasy football history. He caught 145 of 191 targets for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, plus led the NFL in all four categories and won Super Bowl MVP. Kupp averaged 25.9 PPR fantasy points per game, the single highest number in fantasy football history.
Unsurprisingly, Kupp entered 2022 as the consensus WR1. And for eight weeks, he was the same exact guy. From Weeks 1-9 (with a bye week mixed in), Kupp averaged 24.8 ppg, a mere 1.1 off his previous season. Simply put, Kupp was about to do it again.
Ahead of Week 10, Stafford got hurt. And while Kupp would be a WR1 with any quarterback, expecting video game numbers without Stafford would be foolish. With John Wolford under center, it was an outright disaster in Week 10 for Kupp, who scored just 2.9 fantasy points. Unfortunately, in that game, Kupp also sustained a season-ending ankle injury.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Kupp at His ADP?
Entering the 2023 season, what exactly has changed about Kupp’s situation? He’s on the same team with the same head coach and the same quarterback. The Rams are perilously thin at wide receiver behind Kupp, being led by Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek.
By all accounts, Kupp should once again see over a 30% target share. So, why isn’t he being valued as the consensus WR1 again?
For starters, he’s now 30 years old, which justifiably gives fantasy managers some concern. To that, I would say age 30 is not the age at which wide receivers typically fall off. That’s more age 31/32. Additionally, Kupp’s skill set is one that should age well, as he doesn’t rely on athleticism to produce.
The main culprit of the slight devaluation of Kupp appears to be injury. It’s not just Kupp, though. The concern regarding Kupp’s elite status is that he needs to stay healthy, and so does Stafford.
Earlier in the offseason, there were reports that Stafford was considering retirement. He’s dealt with neck and back issues, plus he had an elbow issue prior to the 2022 season.
At 35 years old, Stafford is not exactly young. But he’s not old either. We’ve seen plenty of quarterbacks, especially those who look like Stafford, be effective well into their late 30s.
The question fantasy managers must ask themselves is whether they’re willing to gamble on Stafford and Kupp staying healthy. As far as I’m concerned, that’s the only thing standing between Kupp and another 22+ ppg season.
Everything about his 2022 season suggested he’s still elite. Kupp’s 31% target share was third in the league. He was targeted on 31.5% of his routes run (fourth in the NFL), and even more impressive given how many routes he runs.
Despite having a paltry 7.6 average depth of target, Kupp was seventh in the league with 2.61 yards per route run. Kupp wasn’t being used downfield nearly as much, yet his rate of productivity barely dropped off. The man is elite, and we have no reason to think that will change this year. It all comes down to health.
Health concerns are the only reason Kupp has an ADP of WR3, No. 5 overall. It’s the only reason I have him ranked as my WR5. My projections have Kupp absolutely dominating once again at 134 catches for 1,683 yards and 11.9 touchdowns, 22.5 ppg, and quite possibly the overall WR1.
Players like Kupp present a very interesting philosophical conundrum. If I could see the future and knew Kupp would play 17 games, he’d be my WR1. So, if we’re concerned about the injury, what really is the difference between burning a top-two or top-six pick on him? Either way, if Kupp gets hurt, it will torpedo your fantasy season.
I struggle with the Kupp ranking because he’ll never go low enough to the point where it’s “okay” to take on the injury risk. You’re either willing to roll the dice, or you’re not.
If you’re not willing to roll the dice, why take Kupp in the first round at all? But if you are, then he should be going ahead of Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. It’s just an interesting thought experiment, perhaps for a different article.
I’m a big believer in Herm Edwards’ mantra: You play to win the game. If Kupp gets hurt, your season is in trouble. But the same goes for anyone else you take in the first round. We know injuries happen. They very well may happen to someone we don’t expect, which is why I don’t believe in predicting injury.
Ultimately, I find myself at peace with taking the best wide receiver in fantasy football. If Kupp gets hurt, so be it. If he doesn’t, well, I’ve got the best WR in fantasy.