And just like that, only four NFL teams remained. Entering the Conference Championship Games, where does each team stand in our NFL Playoff Power Rankings?
To limit subjectivity from our power rankings, we have devised our PR+ metric, which combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, our special teams ranking, and a level of correction for the teams’ strength of schedule and win-loss record among other things. We also take injuries and other factors surrounding teams into account.
Let's examine who has the best chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.
The Commanders will play in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. Only the Browns, who last appeared in a Conference Championship Game in 1989, endured a longer drought.
Washington went 4-13 (.235) last year, marking the fourth-worst win percentage in the season prior to making a Conference Championship appearance, trailing only the 2017 Jaguars (0.188), 2006 Saints (0.188), and 1967 Oilers (0.214).
Jayden Daniels has put the Commanders on his back. He became the first rookie to beat a No. 1 seed since Joe Flacco in 2008, the first rookie QB in NFL history to record 275 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in a playoff win, and the third rookie QB to win two road playoff games (joining Flacco and Mark Sanchez).
Now, Daniels is attempting to become the first rookie QB to lead a team to the Super Bowl. Washington is the ultimate Cinderella team, and PFN's model gives the Commanders a 38.2% chance of defeating the Eagles and a 16.7% chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
This season, the Chiefs always seem to find a way to win and the Divisional Round was no different. Entering this game, teams that were outgained by 120+ yards and forced zero takeaways were 0-41 in NFL playoff history -- the Chiefs became the first to win.
After the game, Texans players and even head coach DeMeco Ryans called out the officiating that they deemed one-sided. Since 2018, the Chiefs have received nine roughing-the-passer calls in the playoffs (including the Will Anderson Jr. call on Saturday), while the rest of the NFL combined has totaled 18 such calls, with no other team receiving more than two.
Still, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid, and Co. have been here before and it shows. Reid won his 300th game on Saturday, and Kelce's 117 receiving yards against Houston pushed his career playoff total over 2,000 yards, joining Jerry Rice as the only players in NFL history to reach this milestone.
Kansas City has now made seven consecutive Conference Championship appearances -- only the Patriots had more in a row (eight from 2011-18) in NFL history.
PFN's model hasn't been very high on Kansas City throughout this season due to their poor Offense+ and Defense+ metrics and weak schedule, which is why they are ranked third. However, the model still gives the Chiefs a 25.01% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The Bills' offense has been terrific all season, but they are now clicking in all facets. Josh Allen won the battle of MVP frontrunners, rushing for two touchdowns and completing 16 of 22 passes for 127 yards.
Buffalo has scored on at least 55% of their possessions in six games this season, with four of those coming against playoff teams. The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, but that could change this year with Allen and Co. playing their best football at the right time. Buffalo will face off against the Chiefs in a rematch of their epic 2021 AFC Championship showdown.
In their Divisional Round win over the Ravens, the Bills picked off Lamar Jackson and recovered his fumble. This marked Jackson's first multiple-turnover game of the season. Buffalo has been even or better in the turnover margin in 21 straight games, which is tied with the 1952-53 Rams for the longest streak in NFL history. PFN's model currently gives Buffalo a slight edge over the Chiefs in next week's showdown, giving them a 50.7% chance of defeating the back-to-back defending champions and a 27.83% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since (at Washington in Week 16) after Jalen Hurts exited early with a concussion. In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (during the Divisional Round on the road against the Chiefs). Based on PFN’s win probability model, which ran 10,000 simulations via the PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Eagles have a 61.8% chance of winning the NFC Championship Game and a 30.45% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Saquon Barkley was incredible in the Eagles' win over the Rams, rushing for 205 yards and two touchdowns. Barkley now has five rushing touchdowns of 60+ yards this season (including playoffs), which is the most in a single season in NFL history.
Barkley recorded three rushing touchdowns of 70+ yards against the Rams this season, matching the most by any player in a single season. Also, Barkley became the fifth player in NFL history with multiple 200-yard rushing games against the same team in a single season, joining Derrick Henry, Jay Ajayi, Jamal Lewis, and O.J. Simpson.
