The line is pretty much spot on, as the simulations put the most likely range of outcomes as a win by 3-5 points for either side. I lean towards the Packers, who appear to be peaking at the right time and getting back close to full health. This should be an entertaining game and a potential playoff matchup preview.
My money here goes on the over, and I lean towards the Commanders -5. Additionally, I will look at some combination of the moneyline with the over on a total below 45, depending on the odds I can get in pairing them.
Lions -4 feels a bit too good to be true, and I am going to take it with pleasure at this point. Usually, a line like this that feels too good to be true backfires, but all my numbers tell me that Detroit should win comfortably.
This goes against the season-long metrics, but the way things are trending, I’m looking to take the Panthers laying the points. Over a touchdown is enough for me, but I would also look at teasing it up over 10 points as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if Carolina wins outright.
With two mediocre defenses, the over is a solid play here as well.
There’s no way you can bet on this game this early in the week because things will change considerably if the Broncos and Chargers avoid defeat on Saturday. So, for now, I’m passing on this game. But I am snapping up the Dolphins laying anything less than a touchdown on Saturday evening or Sunday morning.
The line here seems pretty much spot-on, so unless you’re looking for an angle, this is a game I am going to pass with too many unknowns.
If you were picking this game today, knowing the Colts would still have a chance at the playoffs, then somewhere in the -7 region would be perfect. But it’s close to impossible to bet on this game ahead of time because of the impact of Saturday’s games on this one in particular.
Even if the Colts were eliminated on Saturday, you wouldn’t put it past this New York Giants team to lose by double digits to anyone with the way they are playing.
Teams tend to match up more evenly with divisional opponents than other teams, so look for the Jets to play this one somewhat closely. Based on that, this line seems too high, but there’s no way I am ruining my Christmas weekend by betting on the Jets. Maybe teasing this game down to Bills -3.5 and pairing it with another game is the way to go.
Taking the Ravens -4 is a fairly comfortable play based on the metrics. Baltimore has been their own worst enemy at times, but they should have too much for a Texans team that has been far from convincing.
This game feels like it comes down to the final possession, and I tend to avoid picking a side on those. However, they also tend to have shootout vibes, and a 30-27 type game is very much in the realm of possible outcomes here.
I’m taking the over here, as well as looking to tease the Broncos up to +9 and the total down to 42.5.
Seattle is motivated to win and is the superior team across the board. Being on the road in a potentially cold-weather game is not ideal, but the Seahawks are used to playing in adverse conditions.
The total is almost exactly where I would have placed it for this game, and the line is pretty close. I lean towards Pittsburgh getting the points, but it’s tight, so unless you want to tease the Steelers up to getting over a touchdown and take the total down below 40, it’s hard to find a play for this one.
Los Angeles is slightly better offensively and significantly better defensively and has similar special teams and SOS metrics to the New England Patriots. They are also coming off extra rest, having played last Thursday, and know that a win clinches a playoff spot, allowing them some rest and recuperation in Week 18.
The cold weather and early kickoff give me pause, and I would prefer to only be laying a touchdown. Still, the Chargers are the right side here.
The sportsbooks have essentially made this a pick ’em, and I couldn’t agree more. The last game between these two was an offensive disaster, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw more of the same.
I lean towards taking the under, but this is another game where I don’t want my Christmas weekend ruined betting on bad teams.
The Cardinals’ lack of motivation makes this a really tough game to judge. An offensive explosion is not out of the question, though, so taking the over is the way to play this one. A nice parlay/teaser here might be to combine the Rams’ moneyline with an over in the low 40s.
There’s no real way of knowing how Hurts will progress through the concussion protocol, so betting on either side of this game is essentially taking a 50-50 guess on his status. If he clears the protocol, I would take the Eagles at anything -7 or below and then tease down anything up to -10 by six points.
