The Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions are both teams that have seemingly positive energy from the majority of national fanbases. Ever since the Lions got out of the basement of the NFC North and became an offensive juggernaut, they have been media darlings with everyone rooting for their success.
A similar story has followed the Commanders after firing their owner, hiring a new general manager, head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback all in the same off-season. In spite of consensus opinion (even the markets); the Commanders have battled their way to a Divisional Round matchup with the Lions.
Commanders vs. Lions Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Lions -8.5 - Moneyline
Lions (-470); Commanders (+360) - Over/Under
55.5 total points - Game Time
8:00 p.m - Location
Ford Field
Commanders vs. Lions Preview and Prediction
Detroit’s defense is banged up but still manages to be competitive. When the one seed was on the line, they held the Minnesota Vikings to just nine points. According to TruMedia, this was their lowest-scoring game this season and was 16.4 points below their average. They managed this without forcing a single turnover.
In games without a turnover, the Commanders are 6-2 and average 22.63 points per game. Not a winning recipe for the Lions’ defense. Luckily for Detroit, they rank seventh in defensive EPA (expected points added) gained from turnovers this season, showing that they are above average at forcing them.
The Lions are 15th in defensive EPA against scrambles but 27th in EPA against designed quarterback runs. While Jayden Daniels might not have as much success scrambling as he did against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, the Commanders should definitely draw up some designed runs for him. They rank third in the league in EPA on quarterback runs this season, behind only the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
The Commanders rank 29th in defensive EPA in man coverage versus 22nd in zone coverage. While the Lions rank sixth offensively against zone and first by a country mile against man. The Commanders run man coverage at about a league-average rate but should definitely consider toning this down against the Lions.
The question of this game will be whether or not the Commanders have the offensive willpower to keep up with the Lions. We know that neither defense is equipped to make stops but Detroit’s offensive advantage is considerably more potent than Washington’s. This exacerbates in high leverage situations as well.
The Commanders’ defense ranks 18th, 19th, and 26th in late down, likely pass, and trailing situations this season. Comparing this to the Lions offense which ranks fourth with a lead, fifth in likely pass situations, and first on late downs, we see that the defense could be in a lot of trouble if they get down early.
To prevent this, the Commanders will need to come out of the gates swinging. Unfortunately, this has not been the case for the Commanders this season. They rank 19th in offensive EPA on scripted plays. There have only been two lines this season higher than 55.5 points. Lions versus Vikings in Week 18 and Lions vs Bills in Week 15. One game hit the over and the other the under.
I do like the Lions to win this game. But at -470 odds; the implied probability is 82.46%. That is a bit too rich for me, especially considering the fact that the overwhelming majority of the public is on the Lions.
My pick: Under 55.5 total points (-110)
