The Washington Commanders have allowed 30 or more points in four straight games. Will they have enough to slow down an Atlanta Falcons‘ offense that has performed much better at home than on the road? Let’s look at the betting odds for this matchup.
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Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Falcons -2.5
- Moneyline: Commanders (+120); Falcons (-112)
- Over/Under: 42
- Game time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Channel: CBS
Commanders vs. Falcons Prediction
There appear to be two big storylines surrounding this matchup. On one hand, there is a young quarterback who is proving to be unbeatable at home. On the other side, there is a defense that has been unable to slow anyone down over the last month and might be one of the league’s worst units.
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Both factors would appear on the surface to provide a huge advantage for the Falcons when they host the Commanders, but the line is less than a field goal, in large part because these two teams seem even in many areas, especially at the quarterback position.
This is a matchup featuring two quarterbacks coming off career performances. Falcons’ signal-caller Desmond Ridder threw for a career-high 329 yards in Atlanta’s win over Houston last week, while the Commanders’ Sam Howell also had his first career 300-yard passing game, throwing for 388 yards in a loss to the Chicago Bears.
Each team has quality at the running back position — the Falcons have rookie Bijan Robinson, while the Commanders have second-year back Brian Robinson. Both have decent receivers, even if the Falcons rely on tight ends Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts. Meanwhile, the Commanders have three quality wide receivers Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel. McLaurin is second among wide receivers in catch percentage at 80.6% (Carolina Panther Adam Theilen is No. 1).
The two big differences between these two are their defenses and turnovers. While the Falcons boast a top-10 defense — seventh in total defense and 10th in scoring defense — the Commanders are near the bottom in both categories. In fact, only the Broncos have allowed more points than Washington.
The Commanders are near the top in giveaways on offense with 10. Remarkably, all of their turnovers have come at home. The Commanders also have been horrible at protecting Howell, giving up 29 sacks. Only the Giants (30) have allowed more.
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The ability of the Falcons to put pressure on Howell could be a difference-maker in this matchup. Howell’s passer rating this season when he is under pressure (50.1) is less than half of what it is when he isn’t under pressure (107.8).
Still, the Falcons’ defense has been terrible at getting to the quarterback so far. No team has fewer sacks than Atlanta, whose five sacks are tied with the Giants for the fewest in the NFL.
Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by one score, and I don’t see this matchup being any different. On paper, I think the Commanders have the edge in talent. But one of the biggest mysteries of this season is how a team can be so poor defensively despite boasting perhaps the best front line in the NFL. Washington has three players — Montez Sweat (4.5), Chase Young (3.0), and Jonathan Allen (3.0) — with at least three sacks. Only Buffalo (4) has more such players.
But until the Commanders demonstrate they can stop anyone, it’s hard to favor them in any matchup. Give up the points and take the home team.
Best Bet: Falcons -2.5 (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)