Neither one of these offenses is loaded with elite talent, but fantasy football managers are going to be asked to make tough decisions involving both of these teams regularly. The Washington Commanders fantasy preview for this week centers around questioning which receiver holds the most value while the Denver Broncos fantasy outlook involves some moving pieces due to health concerns.
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Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Broncos -3.5
- Total: 39
- Commanders implied points: 18
- Broncos implied points: 21.5
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell: The North Carolina product threw a touchdown pass and ran for another against the Cardinals in Week 1, and that is exactly the profile we, as QB streamers, want. We are targeting a quarterback who can provide value in a variety of ways, and Howell proving this has him trending up in our PFN Consensus Rankings.
The Broncos’ defense is stout, but that doesn’t mean that can’t be had. In their Week 1 loss to the Raiders, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 20 of 26 passes for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Howell is a QB2 for me this week and is an option in Superflex or DFS GPs – not someone that standard-sized league players need to concern themselves with.
Russell Wilson: A tick over 6.5 yards per completion wasn’t exactly the high-voltage pass game that we were hoping for with Sean Payton calling the shots now. Still, it is worth noting that Wilson was efficient (27 of 34) in the Week 1 loss, despite playing without his WR1.
The concern here is two-fold. First, both of these teams win ugly when they win, so neither team is likely to be pushing the other to take the sort of risks we, as fantasy managers, want to see. Second, the rushing production is gone. When Wilson scrambles, it is with the turbo meter drained, and it’s all he can do to get back to the line of scrimmage.
Maybe a Jeudy return results in more upside from this passing game, but I need to see it before projecting it. Wilson is on the outside looking in at my top 20 this week, and I don’t even have him ranked as the best fantasy QB in this game.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr.: Robinson touched the ball 20 times in Week 1 and failed to gain more than seven yards a single time, and yet, he was easily the best RB in this backfield.
As pitiful as that sounds, I like the long-term outlook from Robinson in a James Conner way. You know what you’re getting – volume, not efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders do battle Week 1 of the NFL season. Are there any fantasy players you should put in your lineups? https://t.co/BN5Pk5goK0
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That said, he runs hard, and he did make a nice route adjustment for a touchdown against the Cardinals – something he wouldn’t have done as a rookie. Robinson is my favorite Commander back, but against a Broncos defense that just held Josh Jacobs to 48 yards on 19 carries, he’s not a top-30 RB for me.
Antonio Gibson: We knew Gibson’s role was going to be somewhat limited entering the season. None of us thought he had much of a chance to unseat Robinson on the early downs, and that was proven accurate. We did, however, think he would hold value in a JD McKissic-plus sort of role, but that wasn’t the case.
Gibson had as many red zone fumbles as he did passing targets last week. Maybe he carved out a niche in the passing game this week against a strong defense, and that hope is what is keeping him on my roster. The role upside is certainly limited, and with another dud performance, he could be on the chopping block heading into Week 3.
Javonte Williams: The real winner of Week 1 was modern medicine. Between the Breece Hall explosion, the Kenneth Walker recovery, and the Williams usage, fading RBs for health reasons in Week 1 was not profitable.
Williams was given 19 opportunities in the season-opening loss – 13 carries and six targets – and was on the field at the end of the game as Denver tried to rally. With a projected point total under 40, it’s unlikely that this game provides fireworks, and that is why Williams is nothing more than a Flex play for me. Still, I am higher on him in my rest-of-season rankings now than I was a week ago.
Samaje Perine: He joined the Broncos for a reason this summer, and that is to add stability to this offense. He did just that in Week 1 by picking up 41 yards on his eight carries and leading the team in receiving with four catches for 37 yards.
This is Williams’ backfield to control, but Perine isn’t going to go away any time soon. Maybe he can carve out standalone value with time as Sean Payton’s vision comes into focus, but for the time being, he is roster depth for you – not a starter. Right now, he’s RB36 in my early rankings.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: The two-catch, 31-yard stat line isn’t pretty, but he did draw a 37-yard defensive pass interference to help set up a score. Of course, you don’t get points for that, but the idea that they took a shot at him in the end zone should be viewed as encouraging.
Does he see a lot of Patrick Surtain in this matchup? It’s certainly possible, and that has him sitting outside of my top 25 at the position. Better days are ahead for McLaurin, and if he struggles in this spot, a buy-low trade offer will be on my Monday to-do list.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
Jahan Dotson: The second-year budding star out of Penn State earned seven targets in Week 1, but they were a weird seven targets. We know his big play ability, yet his five catches resulted in just 40 yards – none gaining even 15 yards.
His role will be something worth watching, and this could be a breakout spot if Surtain does live in the shorts of McLaurin. We saw Jakobi Meyers produce as the WR2 against Denver last week, and Dotson has more physical tools while occupying the same role. I have him ranked over McLaurin this week and will be overweight when it comes to DFS.
Curtis Samuel: Samuel led the team in both catches (five) and receiving yards (54) in the season opener, but he doesn’t need to be near starting lineups right now.
It’s unclear just how explosive this Commanders’ offense will be under Howell, and with a handful of viable pass-catchers on this roster, it’s impossible to project enough usage for a YAC player like Samuel to matter in our game. He’s a gadget player that holds much more value to Washington than he does to you. Move on.
Jerry Jeudy: A hamstring injury cost him the first week of the season and will likely nag at him this week if he is active. I would rather be a week late rather than a week early on a soft tissue injury for a receiver in an offense that I don’t trust yet. Even with a clean bill of health entering the weekend, Jeudy will not crack my top 30 at the position.
Courtland Sutton: As the pseudo-WR1 in this offense last week, Sutton caught four of five targets for 32 yards and a score. Not a bad performance, but again, this Denver offense was grounded, and I don’t trust him or Jeudy to get there on volume alone. I’ll have Jeudy ahead of Sutton, assuming he plays, and if he sits, Sutton simply fills the Jeudy spot, remaining out of my top 30 at the position.
Marvin Mims Jr.: The idea behind a player like Mims was supposed to be one-play upside. That didn’t happen in Week 1 against the Raiders. He only recorded two targets, two catches, and nine yards. When Jeudy returns and attracts attention, Mims could get loose downfield on occasion, but he’s more of a DFS flier than a rookie who needs to be rostered in annual leagues.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: Four catches for 43 yards in the season-opening win over the Cardinals isn’t a stat line to write home about, but a team-high 27.6% target share is certainly noteworthy. With a catch rate north of 65%, despite iffy QB play and a touchdown once every 14 receptions throughout his career, Thomas is a name for TE streamers to keep in mind as long as he is healthy.
This is the third time in his past four games he has earned at least seven targets. McLaurin figures to be a volume target, but he’s about it in this passing game when it comes to consistent usage, which leaves the door open for Thomas to provide passable numbers at a position that sees as much week-to-week turnover on the fringes as any.
Greg Dulcich: The talented second-year player missed Denver’s seven games last season due to a hamstring injury that he re-injured in Week 1. He is going to miss multiple weeks and can be dropped in all formats. I’d look elsewhere for a replacement. Adam Trautman caught all five of his targets last week against the Raiders, but he doesn’t profile as the type of player with top-15 upside at the position.
Who Should You Start in Week 2?
Should You Start Courtland Sutton or Gabe Davis?
I don’t think either of these receivers is safe. That has me leaning the way of upside in the form of Davis. The offensive upside of the Broncos isn’t high enough to justify going Sutton’s direction (regardless of Jeudy’s status) against a Bills offense in a good bounce-back spot against a porous Raiders secondary.
Should You Start Jahan Dotson or Garrett Wilson?
Our PFN Consensus Rankings reflect optimism on Dotson, and my rank is leading the charge. We saw Jakobi Meyers finish last week as the WR3 — he was the WR2 on an offense facing the Broncos. Dotson finds himself in that same spot this week with Patrick Surtain II likely to spend more time on Terry McLaurin.
Dotson saw seven targets last week, and if he can repeat that involvement, we are looking at a DFS slate-breaker at his cost!