The Washington Commanders will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Commanders skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jayden Daniels, QB
Jayden Daniels completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during his current five-game win streak, drastically improved from his 49.1% rate over his previous five games. After a midseason swoon likely caused by ailing ribs, the growth we are seeing is ultra-impressive for a player navigating his first professional season.
He relied heavily on his legs in his NFL debut against these Bucs (16 carries for 88 yards and two scores, one of which came in garbage time), but we have a much more comfortable and versatile Daniels these days. Tampa Bay owns the lowest interception rate among playoff teams (1.1%, 29th across the NFL), making Daniels my pick as most likely to hit the rare double-bonus (300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards) stat line.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB
Brian Robinson Jr. is a fine player, but he’s nothing more than a leverage play this week. He managed just 40 yards on 12 carries in Week 1 as a part of this matchup, and that was without defenses having to allocate the attention to Jayden Daniels they now prioritize.
The problem for me with Robinson is the regression of his passing-game number. Last season, he turned 218 routes into 43 targets (19.7% rate). That growth was great to see, but with 25 targets on 185 routes this year (13.5% rate), we can’t count on much help should the game script work away from the ground game.
The contrarian side of this would be you taking a pro-Washington angle. The Commanders jumped out early in Week 13 against the Titans, and their running backs finished with 35 carries for 229 yards and a pair of scores. I don’t think that’s a likely outcome, but neither do most people, and that would allow you to gain on your competition.
If you do go in this direction, I’d suggest doubling down. If Washington goes up early and controls things, you’re going to want correlated exposure. There are two ways to do this, and I think you can build two lineups to cover both bases — you either embrace the volume that this puts on the Bucs’ passing game and stack Baker Mayfield or you embrace the Tampa Bay dropback count by rostering Washington’s defense.
This is certainly a 4D chess way of approaching the slate this week, but if winning were easy, everyone would do it, right?
Terry McLaurin, WR
Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes during the regular season, more than his previous two best seasons combined. He’s been nothing short of special. Among the 35 receivers with 100 targets this season, he led the way in production relative to expectation this season (+32.2%).
The Falcons elected to cut off their nose despite their face and make it their mission to slow McLaurin down — they won the battle, but not the war.
McLaurin was held to just one catch, but the Commanders still won. If you remove that very aggressive defensive game plan, his production jumps to +39.6%, a rate that would be the second-best for a qualified receiver since 2016 (2023 Brandon Aiyuk holds the crown).
The Bucs don’t have a corner like A.J. Terrell Jr., nor have they shown the propensity to defend as the Falcons did in that Week 17 matchup. The bankable volume in the game with the highest projected point total should have McLaurin garnering as much ownership as anyone at the position.
From a game theory point of view, I think there’s something to a Jayden Daniels stack that doesn’t include McLaurin, but that’s more a conversation for huge contests that require creativity. If you’re strictly looking for what an optimizer is going to spit out, McLaurin is going to fit in most lineups this week.
And if you’re like me and believe Washington can pull off the minor upset, he’s a strong play in playoff-long formats as well.
Zach Ertz, TE
There are just four tight ends who have more games this season with at least seven PPR points than Zach Ertz (12). That may seem like a low bar to clear, but is it?
Sam LaPorta didn’t get there.
Travis Kelce didn’t get there.
The veteran TE is spending 57% of his time in the slot, which has allowed Ertz to cash in on layup targets (5+ targets in six of his past eight games). Those looks project favorably in this specific spot against a Buccaneers defense that allows 9.1 yards per slot pass, the second-most in the NFL.
Ertz’s value has been the product of touchdowns (six over his past seven games), and while chasing scores can be dangerous, he’s in the right offense to do it. Washington has been the second-best red-zone offense since Week 10 (TD on 80% of red-zone trips).
The Commanders’ offense has grown, and Ertz has found his footing with time, giving me confidence that he rather easily clears the 3-28-0 stat line he gave us in Week 1 against the Bucs.
In postseason-long leagues, Ertz is a tough sell. At variable positions like this, I want game equity, and even if the Commanders were to pull off the upset this week (I think it’s live), I don’t see them getting past the Lions (assuming the Eagles handle the Packers).
Dalton Kincaid and Will Dissly are the lesser-thought-of tight ends who I’d rather gamble on in structures like that.