The Washington Commanders will face the New Orleans Saints in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Commanders and Saints skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Derek Carr, QB | NO
Derek Carr (broken left hand) has officially been listed as “week-to-week” by the Saints, but his season appears to be over and I think we can operate under that assumption with New Orleans effectively being a game away from playoff elimination.
Carr still has two years remaining on his deal (though the team does have an out available to them this summer), making it important to note that, assuming his 2024 is over, he will have posted a triple-digit deep passer rating for the sixth time in his career.
He doesn’t get the love he should for his touch on the long pass and that will likely be reflected when I am higher than you on Chris Olave this summer.
Jake Haener, QB | NO
The Saints announced on Friday that Jake Haener will take over for Derek Carr this week, meaning he will lead this mash unit. Is the Washington matchup a positive one? It is, but we have no proof that Haener will be able to do so, especially when you consider the lack of firepower he has at his disposal.
We don’t have much in the way of professional data on Haener, though his ability to take the layup throws is something he has struggled with up to this point. On 20 career short attempts, the pride of Fresno State has completed just nine passes for 75 yards with zero scores.
That means he’s completing 45% of such attempts while averaging 3.8 yards per attempt for his career. For reference, the NFL averages are 73.4% and 5.6. The samples are too small to make sweeping assumptions, but they are also too negative to be even remotely interested in.
Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS
Jayden Daniels came out of the gate flying this season, and yet, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that he was playing his best football ahead of the Week 14 bye. I guess you could nitpick “best,” but when it comes to fantasy production, the results are real and spectacular.
PPR Points, Weeks 12-13:
- Saquon Barkley: 65.9
- Daniels: 58.0
- Jerry Jeudy: 55.0
- Bucky Irving: 54.7
- Tua Tagovailoa: 53.7
- Caleb Williams: 53.0
Is it possible that I would have laughed in your face if you presented that list to me in August and said it was a two-week leaderboard for a very impactful two-week stretch? I’m not saying no, such is the nature of this business.
Daniels had a down month in terms of fantasy production, but he’s back at just the right time for this matchup that scares no one these days. I’m not saying he becomes the first player in NFL history to string together three straight games with at least 25 completions, multiple TD passes, and a rushing score … but I’m not saying he won’t.
Daniels is the Offensive Rookie of the Year and deserves to be locked into starting lineups across the board — from six-team leagues to DFS contests.
Alvin Kamara, RB | NO
Kendre Miller cashed in an eight-yard touchdown last week after Alvin Kamara put this offense in a position to score; while that was annoying, I don’t think there’s much to read into.
Kamara has at least 16 carries and four catches in five straight games. The efficiency has been predictably underwhelming, and he hasn’t scored since mid-October, but he continues to volume his way to viability.
Life would be simpler if Derek Car was still under center, but I don’t think the overall structure of this offense is set to change in a major way, if for no other reason than they don’t have many other options. If their ranking of sixth in pass rate over expectation regresses, Kamara’s value declines but not enough for an actionable change on your end.
Kamara has played a big part in getting your team to this point, and I think you’re riding it out with him against the sixth-worst run defense in terms of success rate.
Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS
Austin Ekeler was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 13 (concussion), a designation that requires a four-game (not week) absence. The veteran is ineligible to return until the season finale with the Cowboys, meaning he won’t be of any help in most situations.
If you have a strong team and play in a standard ESPN league that extends through Week 18, you can stash Ekeler on your IR. But even in a situation like that, it’s going to be difficult to project him for double-digit touches should he return when first eligible.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS
Brian Robinson Jr. has eight top-25 finishes this season, and while that might not read as a game-breaking profile, it’s also one that will rarely put you behind the eight-ball. And this time of year, I’m willing to buy stability like that against a Saints defense that has underachieved for much of the past two months.
I’m aware that Robinson hasn’t had a multi-catch game since September and that there are limitations in this profile. But I’d argue that the hard-nosed running in Washington’s offense, given the versatility of a seemingly healthy Jayden Daniels, creates a floor that is more appealing than the capped ceiling is discouraging.
Here’s a list of running backs who have been atop their team’s depth chart all year and are averaging both 3.3 yards per carry after contact while posting a 35% score or better in our custom elusive rating:
- Derrick Henry
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- James Conner
- Saquon Barkley
- Brian Robinson Jr.
With Ekeler out for the remainder of the fantasy season, Robinson is going to be an RB2 at the very least every week moving forward. As for Sunday, I think he has a real chance to finish inside the top 15 at the position.
Jeremy McNichols, RB | WAS
Austin Ekeler is done for the remainder of the fantasy season, and that is why Jeremy McNichols’ name popped onto fantasy radars.
I’m not sure we need to waste time chasing the secondary usage in this backfield. We aren’t going to see this team run the ball 45 times like they did last week with regularity, but even in a high-volume game like that, the usage was all over the place:
- Brian Robinson Jr.: 16 carries (103 yards, TD)
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 13 carries (94 yards, TD)
- Jayden Daniels: nine carries (34 yards, TD)
- McNichols: six carries (32 yards)
- Dyami Brown: one carry (four yards)
Robinson is going to carry the scoring equity in this offense, and while he’s underwhelmed as a pass catcher this season, McNichols has earned just three targets this season.
With a 24.7% snap share last week (season: 21.5%), there’s no reason to consider McNichols a legitimate RB handcuff. You can find more utility on your waiver wire, no matter how deep your league is.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR | NO
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is essentially a full-time player for the banged-up Saints. However, with Derek Carr sidelined, I can’t imagine going in this direction with any level of confidence.
The recent production spike has been profitable, but MVS’ season on-field target share (14.5%) is in line with the expectations he’s laid out for his career (14.4%). And with the quality of targets set to decline in a major way, there’s no reason to elevate this profile simply based on a matchup with the worst deep-ball defense in the NFL (13.3% touchdown rate).
I’m not ending my fantasy season because I started a low-target option that is playing with a below-average backup quarterback.
Noah Brown, WR | WAS
Noah Brown is as capable as anyone not named Terry McLaurin on Washington’s roster of making plays downfield, which is why I’m keeping him stashed.
But rostering and starting are two very different things. The Saints allow the second-lowest deep-completion percentage and the fourth-lowest touchdown rate on those passes.
Brown’s 12.2-yard career aDOT (multiple deep targets in four of his past six games) opens the door for spike weeks in the right spots. I’m not losing track of him (Week 17 vs. Falcons, the seventh-worst yards-per-attempt-deep-pass defense), but I’m not giving him a second look in the scope of Week 15.
Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS
In theory, any member of an offense led by a rookie quarterback comes with a level of risk, but not all theories are bulletproof.
Terry McLaurin has been a WR2 or better in seven of his past eight games, a run of production that includes consecutive top-eight finishes at the position before having last week off. He’s already scored as many touchdowns this season as the previous two combined while improving both his yards per catch and reception rate.
At this point, the foundation McLaurin has set is so strong that he is nearing bust-proof status. OK, so that label isn’t really a thing, but his excellence across the board creates a steady floor with access to extreme upside. The Saints are the second-best pass defense when it comes to opponent red-zone completion percentage, so maybe a third straight game with a score doesn’t occur. But McLaurin has cleared 15 PPR points without the courtesy of a touchdown twice over his past six games.
Washington’s WR1 is a fantasy WR1 for me this week, the remainder of this season, and for the foreseeable future.
Juwan Johnson, TE | NO
Juwan Johnson had a 30-yard completion in the first quarter last week and was later left uncovered for an 11-yard touchdown. No one is going to fill the void left by Taysom Hill and the injury to Derek Carr further complicates this situation, but without reliable options, Johnson’s 63 games of NFL experience make him a good bet to, at the very least, see consistent usage.
Johnson has scored on 9% of his career targets, a role that seems not only safe (three straight games with a red-zone reception) but valuable this week against the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL. New Orleans’ tight end checks behind Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz – though he is on that tier and a viable streaming option in deeper formats or a reasonable DFS punt play.
Zach Ertz, TE | WAS
I understand the idea behind being skeptical when it comes to Zach Ertz because I have been. There isn’t much single-target upside (69 tight ends have a 30-yard reception since Ertz last did) and this offense has been spotty at times, but the veteran has been nothing short of great.
For the season, he has six top-10 finishes and is filling an important role for this developing unit. He has at least five targets and a touchdown in three straight games, the first tight end at this age to do that since Antonio Gates in 2016, a trend that is strong enough to land him inside my top 15 this week.
I can’t go much higher than that (ultimately, Ertz has three games with 50 yards, the last of which came in October), but you can go this direction if you’re stuck without a stable option.
