The Washington Commanders are leading the NFC East after the Hail Mary win over the Chicago Bears last week. They now travel to New Jersey to face the struggling New York Giants.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Washington Commanders (-3.5, 43.5) at New York Giants
Katz: Did I miss something here? Tracy just ran for 145 yards on 20 carries against the Steelers’ stout run defense. Now, we can get him to run for 100 yards again at +600? Sign me up.
Perhaps the books are looking at his last game against the Washington Commanders in which he carried the ball once for two yards. Initially, that may seem discouraging, but he was still backing up Devin Singletary at the time. In fact, Singletary ran the ball 16 times for 95 yards.
The Commanders have not been the same laughably bad pass defense they were in 2023. They’re actually more of a run funnel now, allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game.
Tracy has completely taken over the New York Giants RB1 role, relegating Singletary to the same type of backup role Tracy was in the first time around. We are getting very good value on Tracy to reach 100 yards on the ground.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Jr. to run for 100 yards (+600)
Soppe: This line feels a little fishy, and that has me trending away from an ATS pick, but that doesn’t mean I’m not betting against Jones at home.
Unders are 15-4 (78.9%) in the last 19 NFC East battles with a road favorite, the case we find ourselves in here. Washington’s defense has looked better of late (22 points over the past two weeks), and while I’m not adjusting my power rankings in a significant way as a result, their ability to shut down below-average offenses is something I’m comfortable in backing this week.
Both the Giants and Commanders own top-10 pressure rates through eight weeks, tendencies that can set these offenses behind the chains. Jayden Daniels walked off with the Hail Mary last week, and that’s great, but he was nothing more than ordinary by way of our QB+ metric. If that’s the case again in this spot, getting to this total is going to be an uphill battle.
Even if the Commanders rediscover their offensive form, we could still cash this ticket. The Giants have failed to reach double-digit points three times this season, all at home on their questionable surface.
Pick: Under 43.5
Soppe: Since 2020, 172 times has a home underdog thrown 30 passes in a game before the weather turns on the East Coast (I’m using Week 10 as a cutoff for the purposes of this note), and 139 of them have thrown for at least 205 yards.
DraftKings has Jones projected to throw 32 times in this spot, and that trend doesn’t directly take into account the matchup. In fact, you could argue that the majority of the performances that go into that 80.8% hit rate are against defenses that are at least average. It’s tough to be a road favorite with a defense like what the Commanders put out on the field.
Washington’s pass defense ranks, 2024:
- 22nd in yards per pass
- 24th in interception rate
- 27th in touchdown rate
- 28th in passer rating
As mentioned, this defense has looked better of late, but if Jones’ volume is in the projected range, I’m happy to take my chances with him reaching this low total.
Pick: Daniel Jones over 204.5 passing yards (would take up to 209.5)
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Washington Commanders
Team: Washington begins a stretch this week where they play an NFC East team three times in four weeks (Eagles in Week 11 and Cowboys in Week 12).
QB: Against the Bears, Daniels threw 12 deep passes, five more than he had attempted in any other game.
Offense: Tress Way had five punts against the Bears — he had four in September.
Defense: Washington has held its opponents to five first downs on 22 third-down conversion attempts over the past two weeks (22.7%). Through six weeks, that rate stood at 46.2%.
Fantasy: For the first time this season, Brian Robinson Jr. failed to score and didn’t reach 100 yards on the ground. He’s the lead man in Washington’s backfield, but without a 20-yard run in five straight and just a single catch over his past three games, this fantasy profile is a little thinner than you might assume.
Betting: The Commanders have seen their past five road games go over the total (and seven of their past eight).
New York Giants
Team: The last time Jones threw a touchdown pass at home was Jan. 1, 2023 — one day before the Damar Hamlin injury.
QB: Last Monday was Jones’ fourth game this season with 20+ completions and zero touchdown passes. Since 2020, this is the third instance in which a QB has “accomplished” that: Jared Goff did it in 2021, and … well, Jones did it in 2020.
Offense: Since 2022, only twice has an NFC team failed to score more than 18 points in at least six games through Week 8 — the 2023 Giants (seven) and the 2024 Giants (six).
Defense: New York didn’t allow a red-zone touchdown to Pittsburgh, but it didn’t matter … again. The Giants are 0-3 this season when not allowing a red-zone score (all other NFL teams are 20-7 this year in such spots).
Fantasy: Tyrone Tracy Jr. had 145 rushing yards against the Steelers, the most by a rookie drafted in the fifth round or later since Phillip Lindsay (Week 13, 2018 at Bengals: 157 rush yards).
Betting: The Giants have covered 12 of their past 15 games when playing on short rest (six straight when that game is played in front of their home crowd, including a Week 4 cover against the Cowboys).