Football is the best. But playoff football? There’s really nothing better in all of sports (if you ask me — which, obviously, you are). In the same vein, betting on football is my favorite sport to bet on … and betting on playoff football is my absolute favorite time of year. Why, you ask? Chalk.
Remember — for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two or three-leg parlays. Also, in the same light, it’s worth noting that if you like several of these lines, it could be worth teasing them down a bit before combining them if you’re building a parlay.
Our Favorite Player Props and Game Lines: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
As the playoffs progress, only the strong survive. Right now, we have four teams entering the Conference Championship Round that have yet to turn the ball over in the playoffs. We know who the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and Kansas City Chiefs are at this point, and we know where to look for production on all four teams.
As the pressure continues to rise each week over the playoff run, teams will lean on their stars to carry them to their full potential and leave nothing in the tank. With less variability in play calling and a general tendency for closer games — when it comes to playoff football, teams lean most heavily on their best weapons, which keeps my betting strategy nice and simple, focusing on the studs.
Saquon Barkley, 25+ Rush Attempts (-125)
Saquon Barkley has played the Commanders twice already this season, and he has over 300 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. In both games, he had over 25 rushing attempts. It’s clear that the Eagles have found a winning strategy in feeding Barkley the rock, as he’s crossed the 25+ carries mark in each of his last four games — all victories.
Regular season games with 26+ carries, 5+ YPC, and 2+ rushing TDs, 2024:
- Barkley: three
- Barkley against the Commanders: two
- All other NFL RBs: two (Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson)
Vegas has been ratcheting up his rushing yard line each week of the playoffs, but his rushing attempt projection hasn’t gone up at the same rate. That’s why I am sticking with a strategy that’s proven its worth over the last four weeks: 25+ carries for Mr. Barkley.
Kenneth Gainwell, o9.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
CHEEKY PLAY ALERT! We’ve hit on this the last three weeks in a row, and guess what? We’re back for more.
In his last seven games, Kenneth Gainwell has surpassed this mark five times, and with the Eagles leaning on the ground game more heavily over their last four games, Gainwell has seen a slight uptick in carries — even with Barkley seeing 29+ touches in all of those games.
Also, if you’re leaning on the Eagles in this one (which I am), there’s a chance they have a lead at the end of the game. This makes 10 yards feel like an extremely achievable number, even if Gainwell only sees 3-5 carries.
Dyami Brown, 4+ Receptions (-118)
Dyami Brown has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the playoffs thus far. Yes, he is absolutely benefitting from this incredible stretch of play from Jayden Daniels, but I’m starting to think the Commanders may have found a sneaky weapon here.
Brown has averaged 4.5 receptions per game over his last four games and has crossed the 50 receiving yards line in three of those games, going over 80 in his last two. The Eagles boast a solid pass defense, but their attention will be spent keeping Daniels in front of them and preventing chunk plays, which should leave plenty of room for Brown to find space underneath.
Jalen Hurts, 40+ Rushing Yards (+140)
What if I told you that Jalen Hurts has run for 40+ yards in four of his last five games? What if I also told you that you could get that line for plus money? Well, that’s what I’m telling you.
I know Hurts took a beating last week against the Los Angeles Rams, and we’ve heard reports of knee/ankle injuries hampering him all week. However, that’s not scaring me from this line. Once the game begins and that adrenaline starts pumping, Hurts will want to play his natural game, and I think we see Hurts sneak his way over this total.
Jalen Carter, 1+ Sacks (+110)
I’m so excited about this one. A defensive prop?! Are you kidding me?
This is my lock of the day. I know many would point to Barkley or Daniels if we’re talking about the best players on the field, but I could easily make a case for Jalen Carter on the defensive side of the ball.
Not only did Carter wreck the Rams last week with two sacks, but he has the best matchup on the field in this game; unfortunately for Washington, their starting RT Sam Cosmi tore his ACL last week. This means Carter will have a matchup with a backup. I don’t care about “next man up” energy — you’re going to need more than that to stop Carter.
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.
