The Dallas Cowboys‘ offense has been on fire in recent weeks, averaging 37 points over their last four games. But how should this impact your player prop bets for Commanders vs. Cowboys?
The PFN Betting Team shares their favorite Commanders vs. Cowboys player prop bets, with top plays for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Brian Robinson, and others.
Top Commanders vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets To Target
Sam Howell Over 25.5 Completions (-120 at DraftKings)
Soppe: We are 11 weeks into the NFL season, and we know exactly what the Commanders want to do: throw the rock. They’ve been a top-five offense in pass rate over expectation for a month now and it’s difficult to envision that changing any time soon.
With that in mind and a big spread where the pass expectation is going to be high anyway, why not target volume-oriented props tied to Sam Howell? Given this total, we expect there to be some points put on the board. In games this season when there are over 40 total points scored, Howell is completing 32 passes per game.
Brian Robinson Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: The Cowboys undoubtedly have one of the best defenses in the league. But man, 38.5 is just really low.
Brian Robinson has run quite well this season. He’s gone over this number in seven of his 11 games and landed exactly on 38 once. Even in a negative game script last week, Robinson saw 17 carries.
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The Cowboys completely blew out the Panthers last week. Yet, both Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders sailed over their rushing yardage lines.
Even with the Cowboys likely to control the game against the Commanders, Robinson should still be a safe bet for 10-12 carries. That should be enough to get him to 40+ rushing yards.
Logan Thomas Over 4.5 Receptions (+124 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Over Washington’s past five losses, Logan Thomas is averaging 5.8 receptions per game. Since the beginning of October, the big tight end has hauled in 78.7% of his targets, a level of efficiency that leads to elite catch volume given the style of this offense. The Cowboys also own the ninth-lowest opponent aDOT, as they ask opposing offenses to take their medicine down the field — works for me!
Dak Prescott Under 0.5 Interceptions (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: After throwing a career-high 15 interceptions in just 12 games last season, Dak Prescott has thrown only six in 10 games so far this season, as his INT % of 1.8 is two percent lower than last year’s and more in line with his career average.
For the season, only six teams have fewer interceptions than the Commanders. With their 23rd-ranked pass rush and 30th-ranked pass defense, Dak should have an easy day throwing the football and not forced into throwing any interceptions.
Tony Pollard Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This feels like an inflated line because the Cowboys are heavy favorites. Tony Pollard rushed for at least 65 yards for three weeks in a row to start the season but hasn’t gone over this rushing total since.
That includes four blowout wins, most recently against the Giants and Panthers in the previous two games.
Game script also might not even be a concern here given the Cowboys’ recent history on Thanksgiving. With Dak Prescott as starting quarterback, the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS on Thanksgiving.
CeeDee Lamb Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Bearman: Going back to the well here. I’ve played the over on player props for WR1s against the Commanders since Week 3 and they hit in eight consecutive weeks. This streak came to an end last week when I picked the wrong Giants wide receiver, but had I taken Darius Slayton, we would be looking at nine straight winners and counting.
There is no reason not to run this back with one of the best wide receivers in the game CeeDee Lamb. This line might be high, but that didn’t stop me from taking A.J. Brown to go over 93.5 receiving yards a couple of weeks ago, who finished the day with 130.
Lamb is averaging 101.3 yards per game, which is higher than this line.
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