I think I’m in love with the Detroit Lions – betting on the Lions, that is.
The Lions are quite literally the perfect storm for offensive production. They have weapons all over their offense in every skill position. They have a head coach who would rather turn it over than punt and a defense that has suffered more key injuries than any other in the league this year. What does that lead to? Points.
Vegas has this one at 55.5 total points, and I’m not standing in their way. Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders are no pushovers – and Daniels’ dual-threat abilities could pose a legitimate threat to the Lion’s post-season dreams. Am I picking a winner in this one? No.
But I do have an eye on several players who are set to exceed expectations.
Remember – for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two- or three-leg parlays. Also, in the same light, it’s worth noting that if you like several of these lines, it could be worth teasing them down a bit before combining them if you’re building a parlay.
Our Favorite Player Props and Game Lines
Commanders at Lions, O55.5 Total Points (-110)
Is there any better bet than the overall game total, and taking the over?
The answer is no, there’s not. According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Lions come into this with a 64% chance of victory. They are -8.5-point favorites, according to Vegas. That spread is a bit rich for my liking, but the total points number (55.5) has my eye.
The Lions own the best offense in the NFL, according to PFN’s OFF+ metrics, and it’s really not that close.
Jahmyr Gibbs, 15+ Rushing Attempts (-140)
Bucky Irving ran all over the Commanders last week, and Washington’s defense as a whole earned a C in PFN’s DEF+ metrics (C- in the playoffs). If the Commanders show up to Detroit with a C/C- defensive effort this weekend, Jahmyr Gibbs should be able to take his 15+ touches per game (good in eight of his last nine games) to the house.
With an expected point total of 55.5 points, I love Gibbs to be a big contributor in this one.
Gibbs has had eight touchdowns over his last four games and has a great matchup against the Commanders’ lackluster defense. In a game script featuring two high-powered offenses, I love Gibbs to remain active, even with the return of running-mate David Montgomery.
Zach Ertz, Anytime TD (+285)
In his last three games, Zach Ertz has three touchdowns, averaging more than four catches per game. This season, Ertz led the Commanders in red zone targets with 21. Especially against a Lions defense that plays a lot of man-coverage, I like Ertz to see a slight uptick in volume – which means even more red zone looks for a player Daniels is comfortable throwing to.
Also, Ertz 25+ Receiving Yards (-160) has hit in 13/18 games that Ertz has played in this year, so if you’re looking for some exposure to Ertz, but maybe mild exposure vs. extra spicy, this yardage prop is a nice option.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Anytime TD (-115)
Twelve touchdowns in 15 games.
That’s the streak Amon-Ra St. Brown is riding right now. He’s the No. 1 wide receiver on the No. 1 offense in the league, and he’s facing off against a defense that came in at a C-grade on PFN’s DEF+ metric. This season, St. Brown is second amongst WRs in red zone targets (31) and first in the league in catches (23).
Good teams tend to rely on their best players in big situations, and I see Goff and the Lions doing the same against the Commanders.
Note: DraftKings has a fun little “Player Special” that I also like St. Brown as well: Amon Ra St. Brown to Record 1+ Receptions in Each Quarter (+115).
Same Game Parlay (+262)
Jayden Daniels, 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-105): surpassed this number in six of his last seven games.
Amon Ra St. Brown, 50+ Receiving Yards (-390): surpassed this number in nine of his last ten games.
Jared Goff, 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-285): surpassed this number in five of his last six games.
Sam LaPorta, 25+ Receiving Yards (-475): surpassed this number in all of his last five games.
Remember, folks, I’m all over the over (get it?) in this game, which means I’m in support of all things offense. In scenarios like these, I look for the most consistent players on either team, and I tease their best attributes down a bit and tie them together. Tonight, I’m looking at the two QBs and the two top pass catchers for the Lions.
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.
