Is this going to be an aesthetically pleasing game? Probably not, but fantasy football matchups could well be decided by your ability to project this game. The Indianapolis Colts’ fantasy values start and end with the potential of Anthony Richardson while the Houston Texans’ fantasy value comes by way of an underwhelming ground game. How many players from this game grade out as Week 2 starters in our PFN Consensus Rankings?
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
- Spread: Colts -1
- Total: 39.5
- Colts implied points: 20.3
- Texans implied points: 19.3
Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson: We did it! After a preseason of wanting to see Anthony Richardson flash his fantasy potential, we finally got a glimpse of just how friendly his profile is. The 47 opportunities (passes + rushes) is the number I liked the most from his NFL debut — he almost can’t fail if that usage is here to stay.
When you dig a little deeper into the play-calling, you’ll be even more encouraged. The Indianapolis Colts called three straight pass plays to open their season, something that tells me that they are confident in Richardson and not just trying to control the tempo.
His rushing TD came by way of a draw from two yards out, and we know head coach Shane Steichen is more than willing to let his QB call his number in close.
The rookie slips just inside my top 10 at the position this week and could well prove to be in that second tier of fantasy signal-callers before long. Giddy up!
C.J. Stroud: On the bright side, I didn’t think C.J. Stroud looked scared in his debut. He doesn’t matter in redraft (5.5 yards per pass with limited rushing potential and no real scoring upside) and isn’t even a must-start QB in Superflex leagues.
Running Backs
Deon Jackson and Zack Moss: Deon Jackson had the opportunity to establish himself as “the guy” in this backfield last week with Zack Moss (forearm) sidelined, and — well — he didn’t take advantage. The Jags held him to 14 yards on 13 carries and 14 yards on six targets.
Those struggles should allow Moss to lead this team in touches as he returns to action, a noteworthy role for DFS GPP players, given that Moss posted an 18-114-1 rushing line against Houston last season.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
The horizontal threat of Richardson figures to open up interior running lanes, and that makes this backfield worth having a piece of on your bench. Evan Hull (knee) is on injured reserve, and that could mean these two combine for 25-ish touches. I don’t have either of these backs ranked inside of my top 35, so feel free to look elsewhere.
Dameon Pierce: In the past 10 months, Pierce has one carry gaining more than 11 yards. Uno. He held a 2:1 touch edge over Devin Singletary last week in Baltimore, so we know he is still the lead in his backfield; we just don’t know how valuable that role is.
Pierce made his NFL debut against the Colts last season and picked up just 33 yards on 11 attempts. His projected touch count in a game that he shouldn’t get scripted out of sneaks him inside my top 30 at the position and makes him a Flex option, but nothing more.
Devin Singletary: Mike Boone out-snapped Devin Singletary 25 to 16, thanks to the Houston Texans trailing for 90.3% of their offensive snaps. I typically try not to read too far into previous game scripts, they are more narrative than predictive, but I don’t think Houston playing from behind is going to be some sort of aberration.
Boone ran a route on 76% of his snaps, a rate of involvement that means Singletary is not a player who needs to remain on rosters.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman: The 39-yard TD by way of a screen pass was good to see, as was the 28.2% target share in Richardson’s debut. I still want to see him utilized more down the field (his air yards per catch in Week 1 dropped 6.9% from last season’s number), though that comes with growth from Richardson.
Anthony Richardson's first NFL touchdown pass is a screen to Michael Pittman. This is probably the way it's drawn up in the playbook in terms of execution. pic.twitter.com/KENyNPKntm
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 10, 2023
My primary knock from Week 1 was that Pittman was targeted on just one of Richardson’s 15 first-half throws. That suggests that the team didn’t draw up ways to get him involved out of the gate, and that’s not ideal.
Pittman scored in both games against the Texans, and his involvement in the second half was a sign of things to come. He makes for a solid Flex play in all formats this week and is a receiver I prefer over other WR1s in iffy offenses (DeAndre Hopkins, Garrett Wilson, and Terry McLaurin).
Josh Downs: He caught all three first-quarter targets and went 0-for-4 the rest of the way. He was targeted on 16.7% of his routes, far outpacing Alec Pierce’s 7.3%, and that makes him my second-favorite receiver in Indy, but that doesn’t mean he matters in standard-sized leagues.
Nico Collins: Collins led the Texans in targets (11), catches (six), and receiving yards (80) in the Week 1 loss. He also had the longest play of the day for the Texans (26 yards) and is my second-favorite fantasy receiver in this game, even if that’s damning with faint praise. Collins isn’t sniffing your lineup, though I do like holding onto him as Stroud gains comfort with reps.
Robert Woods: I’m out on JuJu Smith-Schuster in a big way, and Woods is just a poor man’s version of that profile. The veteran earned a 23.3% target share against the Ravens, but without big play potential or any offensive support, this isn’t a player who needs to be on your roster radar.
Tight Ends
Kylen Granson: If you spin the TE wheel and land on Indy for some reason, Granson is your guy. He ran more routes (34) than Mo Alie-Cox had snaps (31), and six targets are nice for a tight end. That said, at this position, you’re essentially chasing a touchdown, and Granson doesn’t hold much hope in that regard.
Dalton Schultz: I guess that he is on rosters because of his time in Dallas. Well, he’s not in Dallas anymore. Against Baltimore, Schultz turned four targets into four whole yards. That put him ninth on the Texans in receiving yards for the week. Move on. Please. By doing so, you free yourself of having to check Houston boxscores and that’s good for your mental health.
Who Should You Start in Week 2?
Should You Start Michael Pittman Jr. or Mike Evans?
In a battle of the first name, these two super-sized receivers have similar fantasy profiles: high-risk, high-reward, talented options that lack stability at the quarterback position.
For now, I favor Evans, primarily due to the sheer number of passes that I expect to be thrown. Anthony Richardson is an elite athlete and that’s great, but it does create a low floor for his WR1 against a defense that is better than you assume.
Should You Start Dameon Pierce or Isiah Pacheco?
Kyle Yates and I have a PFN Merchandise wager on this exact duo for the entirety of the season, and I remain on the Pacheco side this week. Will Pierce get more touches? Probably, but I feel better about Pacheco’s value per touch as a result of being tethered to this Chiefs offense. He caught four balls in the season-opening loss to the Lions, a level of versatility that has me feeling better about this bet than when I made it!