Sunday’s Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins game features two teams that began 2021 with playoff aspirations but are now desperate to avoid digging themselves into holes too deep to overcome. The Dolphins lost a heart-breaking game in Las Vegas to fall to 1-2, while the Colts fell to 0-3 at the hands of their AFC South rival, the Tennessee Titans. Let’s take a look at the current NFL odds, the TV channel, how to listen, and how to live stream this Week 4 matchup, as well as a Colts vs. Dolphins prediction.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins prediction and odds | Week 4
Odds from DraftKings sportsbook.
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dolphins -140, Colts +120
- Over/Under: 43 (Over -110, Under -110)
Despite their 1-2 record, the Dolphins come into Sunday’s game 2-1 against the spread after covering the 3.5-point line in Vegas. The Dolphins are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight home games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered in 12 of their last 14 games following a straight-up loss. The Colts, meanwhile, are 1-2 against the spread in 2021. But the road team has covered in each of the last four meetings between these two teams.
The game total is among the lowest on the board for Week 4. This is not surprising considering these are two of the lowest-scoring offenses through the NFL’s first three weeks. In fact, the under has cashed in two of each team’s first three games. And the under has cashed in each of Miami’s last five games against teams with losing records. Similarly, the under has cashed in five of Indianapolis’ last six games against teams with losing records.
Colts vs. Dolphins prediction
Let’s take a look at the factors that will decide Sunday’s matchup.
The Dolphins need to re-evaluate their offensive game plan
The Dolphins come into this Week 4 matchup with their backup quarterback getting the start for the second consecutive week. Tua Tagovailoa will miss at least two more games after being placed on injured reserve with broken ribs last Saturday. In his absence, Jacoby Brissett had a roller coaster of a game in Las Vegas on Sunday.
Brissett and the Miami offense got very little going through three quarters, scoring only 7 points and committing a safety on an ill-advised throw by Brissett in his own end zone. But the offense was forced to open up in the fourth quarter and overtime because the Dolphins trailed by 8 points.
Miami went on scoring drives of 47 yards (FG), 82 yards (TD), and 43 yards (FG). In the process, Brissett converted on fourth-and-8 and fourth-and-goal plays to score the tying touchdown with two seconds remaining. He’d later connect with Mike Gesicki on a 27-yard completion on fourth and 20 to keep the game-tying overtime field-goal drive alive.
That said, Miami’s offense still has scored only 38 points through three games and is averaging just 4 yards per play, the second-worst figure in the league. Perhaps throwing the football down the field might be a good idea.
The Dolphins invested the sixth overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft in Jaylen Waddle. But according to Next Gen Stats, Waddle is only being targeted 3.8 yards down the field. Using Waddle as if he’s Jarvis Landry is coaching malpractice and that needs to change if Miami’s offense is going to improve.
Miami’s defense isn’t helping, either
It doesn’t help that Miami’s defense — which was supposed to be the Dolphins’ strength — is currently allowing 27.3 points per game (23rd) and 5.6 yards per play (14th). Part of the issue for the defense is certainly the offense’s inability to move the ball and keep the defense off the field (sixth-worst in time of possession).
But Miami’s inability to rush the passer or stop the run both remain huge concerns. The Dolphins are tied for fifth-worst in sack percentage (4.17%). They are also in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed per rush (4.3).
The Colts are in trouble
Luckily for the Dolphins, they welcome an Indianapolis Colts team that is reeling after starting the season with three consecutive losses. Last Sunday in Tennessee, quarterback Carson Wentz heroically tried to play through two injured ankles. But he was largely ineffective, throwing for just 194 yards while completing only 51% of his passes.
It’s not all on Wentz, of course. As PFN’s Adam Beasley notes, the Colts’ offense is punchless and simply doesn’t have the talent necessary to compete in a tough AFC in 2021. Wentz’s average depth of target is just 6.3 yards in 2021, the sixth-lowest in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats. And that makes sense considering Indianapolis’ lack of skill-position talent, particularly without veteran T.Y. Hilton on the field as he recovers from injury.
Things will not get much easier for Wentz and the Indy offense, as they will be without All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson for an undetermined length of time. Nelson left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury.
To their credit, the Indianapolis defense has done its best to keep their team in games. They forced 3 turnovers in the loss to the Titans while holding Ryan Tannehill under 200 yards passing, and they’ve forced 6 total turnovers on the season.
But the Colts’ defense is not without fault for the team’s 0-3 start. The Colts are allowing 26.7 points per game in 2021, the 11th-most in the NFL. They have particularly struggled to defend the run. Opposing teams are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the Colts, the eighth-most in the league.
The Dolphins will try to take advantage of Indy’s struggles against the run, while also looking to build on their scintilla of offensive success in the fourth quarter and overtime last week. More importantly for Miami, its defense should be able to get after the immobile Wentz with aggressive blitz packages due to the Colts’ inability to challenge Miami’s secondary on the outside.
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Colts 13
How to watch and listen to Colts vs. Dolphins this week
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Start: 1 PM ET
- Channel: CBS
- Listen:
- Local Miami: 560 WQAM, KISS 99.9
- Local Indianapolis: 93.5 & 107.5 The Fan, 97.1 HANK FM
- TuneIn Radio
- Sirius XM Radio
- Live Streaming Options:
- Hulu + Live TV
- fuboTV
- YouTube TV
- Paramount+
Check with your streaming service to confirm the availability of specific channels.