If you’re looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers Monday Night Football NFL DFS picks in Week 16, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Colts Considerations
Mercifully, the Matt Ryan era in Indy is over. Of course, that isn’t necessarily good news. Nick Foles will take the reins of a team that’s still one “great” quarterback shy of making a postseason run.
For DFS purposes, we can either bet on Foles or stay as far away as possible. Ryan averaged only 11.3 DFS points in his final four starts. If that’s our baseline, then can we safely invest $9,000 in a longtime backup/spot starter who might realistically top out at 16-17 points?
Meanwhile, the backfield has a prime opportunity to break through against a defense yielding the second most yard per carry. However, it’s a roll of the dice on whether Zack Moss or Deon Jackson are worth DFS spots. Surely we can’t afford both without severely compromising this lineup’s upside.
Chargers Considerations
The opposing Colts’ defense has been solid on many metrics. But containing receiver-friendly RBs isn’t one of them. As expensive as Austin Ekeler is, and despite his frequent inefficient running on the ground, his value through the air is nearly unrivaled among running backs.
And are there any safer Chargers to choose from? Sure, they’ve turned things around in recent weeks, thanks in large part to a healthy receiving corps.
But Justin Herbert’s recent hot streak came against vulnerable pass defenses: the Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, and Dolphins. He struggled against the similarly vulnerable Titans last week.
Starting both Ekeler and Herbert would make a huge dent in our salary cap. Herbert easily has one of the biggest booms in this contest. So by incorporating him, we’d have to go all in on a successful Chargers passing attack.
NFL DFS Picks for MNF on DraftKings
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. I’ll present two recommended lineups based on divergent game scripts.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Zack Moss, Colts ($10,500)
Again, this is the first of two lineups. Once you see the alternate, you’ll see why these two line up nicely. Essentially, either Jackson or Moss should crack 12+ points against a beatable run defense. Their affordability makes them ideal Captain candidates.
Flex: RB Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($11,000)
We’re betting on 6+ catches for 50+ yards and a possible score. If he gets only 14-16 points, not bad. If he gets more, then we can feel pretty good about including him.
Flex: QB Justin Herbert, Chargers ($10,400)
A fantastic floor. Will his ceiling hold up? We’ll see. At least he has the talent and surrounding firepower to dominate.
Flex: WR Keenan Allen, Chargers ($9,800)
For this lineup to fit within the cap, we can invest in either of the two most expensive receivers: Keenan Allen or Mike Williams ($9,400). Williams is more boom-bust. Allen is more highly targeted.
Flex: TE Gerald Everett, Chargers ($4,800)
There are plenty of target-hungry receivers in L.A. Gerald Everett might be No. 5 or 6 on the pecking order. But this is a good price for someone with strong 10+ point appeal.
Flex: TE Jelani Woods, Colts ($2,800)
With Kyle Granson out, the Colts’ TE options narrow significantly. Rookie Jelani Woods should be the unquestioned No. 1 and could serve as a valuable safety valve for Foles.
Alternate Lineup for Monday Night Football
For the alternate lineup, I’d advise removing Moss, Herbert, Everett, and Woods. In their place, add Jackson ($11,400) in the Captain slot, followed by Foles ($9,000), Michael Pittman Jr. ($8,200), and Mo Alie-Cox ($200).
This second lineup assumes Foles will do surprisingly well, backed by a more target-friendly RB (Jackson) and supported by one of the most undervalue WRs in the NFL (Pittman).
It also assumes Herbert will struggle a bit more than expected while Alie-Cox steps up to help fill the void left by Granson’s injury.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.