The Indianapolis Colts will travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-7, 46)
If this isn’t a perfect get-right game for the Vikings, then the alarm should be sounded about their season. Despite two losses, Minnesota remains among the top teams in our PR+ standings, thanks to a third-ranked defense, a ninth-ranked special teams, and a fifth-ranked strength of schedule.
The loss of Christian Darrisaw is a major concern for the Vikings’ offense, which could end with them closer to 20th in Offense+ than their current 15th.
However, the Indianapolis Colts are a bit of a train wreck in general. Sure, all of their losses have been close (all four being one-score games), but so have their wins. They’ve yet to face a top-10 team in our current PR+ standings, and we should learn a lot this week. Indianapolis’ offense ranks 20th, the defense is 22nd, and special teams is 15th.
The Vikings have the advantage in every facet of the game and have the potential to really humiliate the Colts if Anthony Richardson continues playing his carefree brand of football. This should be a slam-dunk get-right game for Minnesota, who should win comfortably. The only risk might be a backdoor cover if the Vikings get up big early on.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Colts 17
Pick: Vikings -7
Colts at Vikings Game Insights
Indianapolis Colts
Team: The Colts are 4-4 this season, with five games decided by a field goal or less (2-3 in those games).
QB: Pressure is one thing; seeing ghosts is another – Richardson went 6-of-20 for 78 yards and an interception against the Texans when not pressured.
Offense: The Colts gained 21.2 yards per drive in the Week 7 win against the Dolphins, their lowest rate of the season. In the loss to the Texans on Sunday, that number was 21.0.
Defense: In Weeks 1-5, the Colts forced a punt on 23.6% of drives, a rate that has spiked to 48.6% since.
Fantasy: Anthony Richardson hit Joh Downs for a 69-yard touchdown pass of the season – his third of 50-plus yards.
Betting: Indianapolis has covered eight of their past 10 road primetime games (this is their first game since Week 13, 2022).
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have played just three true road games this season – after this week, they go on the road for three straight (Jaguars, Titans, and Bears).
QB: Sam Darnold posted his highest in-pocket passer rating of the season on Thursday night (134.0, he’s been over 106.0 in six of seven games.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Minnesota averaged 6.5 yards per play on first down, a rate that is down to 4.8 since.
Defense: The Vikings posted their highest pressure rate of the season in Week 7 against the Lions (58.6%) but couldn’t make Matthew Stafford uncomfortable in Week 8 (11.8%, 18 percentage points below their previous season low).
Fantasy: Against the Rams on Thursday night, Sam Darnold started hot and then struggled – 67.5% of his fantasy points as a passer were scored on Minnesota’s first two drives.
Betting: Since 2020, 74.4% of Vikings games played after Halloween have gone over the total (29-10-1, league average: 48.4%).
Betting: The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games played on extended rest.