The Indianapolis Colts will travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. Here are our betting picks and predictions for this matchup from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 46.5)
Soppe: The Minnesota Vikings are taking on water (consecutive losses after the 5-0 start) while the Indianapolis Colts (4-2 after a 0-2 start) are trending in the other direction and now have offensive stability.
Running backs on the whole don’t impact my opinion of games in a major way, but Taylor (100% of Indy’s RB carries in his return to action) is the exception, and I love him in this spot. During this mini-skid, the Vikes are allowing 169.1% more yards per carry before contact to opposing running backs than they did through six weeks, a scab I expect the Colts to pick at early and often.
Joe Flacco has covered seven of his past 10 road regular season games, and an outright win isn’t out of the question. That said, we saw this matchup down the stretch of the 2022 season, and the Colts blew a 33-point halftime lead — just do me a favor and watch this game to the finish line before victory lapping.
Pick: Colts +5
Soppe: I’m just going to say it — I don’t think there’s a bad way to bet on Taylor this week. DFS Showdown Captain? Sold. Standard betting lines? Good by me. Exotic alternative lines to juice up your ticket? I’m listening.
Taylor had 100% of the running back carries last week against the Texans and might well have 100% of their team carries this week with the team opting to go to Flacco as their starter. We know the Vikings are going to be aggressive and bring pressure from all directions to make the immobile Flacco uncomfortable.
Good.
That style of defense will result in some carries for a loss from Taylor, but it also gives him the opportunity to explode once he advances through that first level. Three times this season a running back ran the ball more than 10 times against the Vikings, and all three of them finished with at least 97 rushing yards.
Taylor’s prop for rush attempts is 18.5; if that’s anywhere close to accurate and Indy keeps this game as close as I think they are capable, he’s a live bet to lead the league in rushing yards today.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor over 95.5 rush yards (+205)
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Indianapolis Colts
Team: The Colts are 4-4 this season, with five games decided by a field goal or less (2-3 in those games).
QB: Pressure is one thing; seeing ghosts is another – Richardson went 6-of-20 for 78 yards and an interception against the Texans when not pressured.
Offense: The Colts gained 21.2 yards per drive in the Week 7 win against the Dolphins, their lowest rate of the season. In the loss to the Texans on Sunday, that number was 21.0.
Defense: In Weeks 1-5, the Colts forced a punt on 23.6% of drives, a rate that has spiked to 48.6% since.
Fantasy: Anthony Richardson hit Josh Downs for a 69-yard touchdown pass of the season – his third of 50-plus yards.
Betting: Indianapolis has covered eight of their past 10 road primetime games (this is their first game since Week 13, 2022).
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have played just three true road games this season – after this week, they go on the road for three straight (Jaguars, Titans, and Bears).
QB: Sam Darnold posted his highest in-pocket passer rating of the season on Thursday night (134.0, he’s been over 106.0 in six of seven games.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Minnesota averaged 6.5 yards per play on first down, a rate that is down to 4.8 since.
Defense: The Vikings posted their highest pressure rate of the season in Week 7 against the Lions (58.6%) but couldn’t make Matthew Stafford uncomfortable in Week 8 (11.8%, 18 percentage points below their previous season low).
Fantasy: Against the Rams on Thursday night, Sam Darnold started hot and then struggled – 67.5% of his fantasy points as a passer were scored on Minnesota’s first two drives.
Betting: Since 2020, 74.4% of Vikings games played after Halloween have gone over the total (29-10-1, league average: 48.4%).
Betting: The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games played on extended rest.