The Indianapolis Colts will face the New York Giants in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
Week 17 Status: OUT
At this point, you know exactly what you’re getting from Anthony Richardson. For better or worse, what he is going to try to do is predictable — you just have to decide if you can stomach it.
For those fantasy managers trying to decide whether to do just that, the decision just became a lot easier with the Colts ruling him out for Week 17’s game.
On the surface, the Giants sounded like a good matchup, partly because they are a bad football team that just gave up 34 points to a Falcons team starting a rookie quarterback for the first time and partly because it’s true.
This defense is a bottom-three unit when it comes to defending the deep pass (yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and completion percentage). I’m not trying to sell you that this defense is better than you think. I was, however, more concerned about them in this specific spot, and isn’t that what we are talking about?
They rank fifth in blitz rate through 16 weeks (31.8%; NFL average: 25.2%), which, as you might imagine, would have introduced all sorts of downsides for Richardson. His passer rating is underwhelming across the board, but it does dip by 20.6% when the opponent brings pressure, so I’m not sure those fun deep ball numbers have been accessed.
Also, what would have worked against Indy’s volatile QB was facing a top-10 red-zone defense. He had the designed five-yard score last week and is a tank when in close, but if there’s one spot that this Giants’ defense has put up a fight, it’s after they’ve allowed you to get inside their 20-yard line.
If he was playing, I would have told you to do what you want as I can’t project Richardson’s randomness with as much confidence as I can others, and I’m aware that he’s run for five scores in his past five games.
His skill set is certainly more friendly for our game than the one he gets paid to play. I just didn’t love this spot for him as much as you might at first blush.
Joe Flacco, QB
This is a good spot for Joe Flacco, though counting on a pocket-locked quarterback with a peaking run game is a bit dangerous. He’s completed 66.5% of his passes this season, but his best counting number performances have come in passing favorable game scripts, something this does not project as.
I currently have him sitting at QB14 this week behind another pocket QB in Aaron Rodgers, a signal-caller who is more likely to be playing catchup (at BUF) than Flacco (at NYG).
Jonathan Taylor, RB
My goodness.
Jonathan Taylor ripped off a pair of long runs on Sunday against the Titans, finishing with 218 yards and three scores. A lesser person would highlight that he had zero targets and that he now has just three catches over his past five games, but let’s not let that fact get in the way of a dominant Week 16.
Taylor has now rushed for over 95 yards in three straight games and gets the benefit of operating as a favorite this week. The passing game caps his projectable ceiling, but not nearly enough to suggest that he’s the least bit questionable this week.
Anthony Richardson can hand the ball off, and as long as that continues to be the case, you’re playing JT with all sorts of confidence in any situation in which the Colts are expected to win.
Alec Pierce, WR
Week 17 Status: PLAYING
A Week 15 concussion left Pierce in protocol for too long to make Week 16 a possibility. You read the plus matchup metrics in the Anthony Richardson profile, and while that could result in him pulling “a Pierce,” fantasy managers are best to look elsewhere in their title games.
“Pulling a Pierce” (slang): The act of catching no more than three passes but totaling at least 125 yards and a touchdown in the process.
Used in a sentence: Twice in the first month of this season did Alec Pierce ‘pull a Pierce,’ giving him as many such performances in 28 days as all other players have since the start of the 2020 season.
Josh Downs, WR
If there’s a time to buy Josh Downs’ stock, it’s now. Whether we talk about DFS or lineup setting in your playoffs, he’s now a must-play with Joe Flacco under center.
This season, he has a 36.4% on-field target share with Flacco. Now, some of this requires situational context (Michael Pittman wasn’t at full strength/active for much of those games), but the point remains that the comfort is there (Puka Nacua is the only player in that zip code as far as target share this season—36.9%).
Alec Pierce’s low-volume role becomes even more risky, while Jonathan Taylor sees his touchdown equity rise a bit—but neither is moving significantly in my rankings as a result of this news.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
Week 17 Status: PLAYING
This season has been a disaster for Michael Pittman Jr.’s managers; there are just no two ways about it. This summer, only 34 players, forget receivers, came off draft boards before him on average, something that is hard to fathom now that he hasn’t scored since mid-October and has failed to clear 50 yards in 10 of 14 games.
I’m not starting Pittman this week, and there’s realistically nothing he can do that would make me go this direction in Week 18 if your league extends that far. That said, if you’re reading this, you’re likely in a spot where you don’t have much of a choice, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.
Pittman’s aDOT has been more than halved when comparing his past three games to his previous six, and that is the leg you have to stand on. Now, it’s possible he runs 20 crisp, short routes in this game, and Anthony Richardson misses him by 2-3 business days with the pass, but those layup targets are how he gets to 12-15 PPR points and becomes worthy of your trust.
Through 16 weeks, the G-men rank 26th in opponent completion percentage on those short throws (75.7%), giving Pittman managers a glimmer of hope that we can see something like the 6-58-0 line that he gave us two weeks ago in Denver of the 6-96-0 production last month against the Lions.