The Indianapolis Colts will face the Tennessee Titans in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
If you live by Anthony Richardson, at this point, you inevitably die by Anthony Richardson.
I wasn’t exactly celebrating in the streets, but I had a contrarian Richardson lineup in my DFS portfolio last week, and after one drive, I thought I was in the running for the smartest man on the planet.
- 22 passing yards
- 28 rushing yards
- Rushing TD
At low ownership because of poor play and a brutal matchup, I thought I was sneaky. That I was the one who spoke a big game in the perfect spot into existence.
That, friends, didn’t happen. As it turns out, 67.3% of Richardson’s fantasy points for the day were scored on that first possession. Again, we were left wanting more. The man has thrown 20 passes in a game eight times this season and failed to complete the majority of them in seven instances.
What was I truly thinking was going to happen?
Most games since 2022 with 20+ attempts and a CMP% of 50% or less:
- Richardson in 2024 alone: Seven
- Zach Wilson: Six
- Baker Mayfield: Five
Lovely.
I could tell you that the Titans own the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, which is 100% true. But I don’t wish for you the level of “how could I have assumed anything different” second-guessing that I experienced for the final 55 minutes of Week 15 in watching every Colts snap.
Richardson is my QB17 this week with the full understanding that there will be highlight plays in both directions. I simply don’t have the stones to go back to the well — I’ve been burned too many times for such a short period of time. Maybe this is a relationship the two of us can figure out — I hear that “time heals all wounds.”
Maybe.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
I’m sure there are people out there that were eliminated by Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball before crossing the goal line last week and, for those people, I’m sorry. This game of ours can be mentally taxing, and losing like that is going to take some time to recover from.
The Colts, albeit without Taylor or Anthony Richardson, managed to run for just 80 yards on 28 carries in the first meeting with the Titans. This Tennessee defense can have success, and I worry that they do against what is essentially a one-dimensional offense in Indy these days. But don’t confuse them as a shutdown unit that can’t be beaten — they’ve allowed at least three points per drive on five occasions this season.
With over 95 rushing yards in consecutive games, Taylor is a fringe RB1 this week. I still think he has an elite upside, something most are not giving him credit for. The Titans have allowed the highest passer rating on RB targets this season, and that has largely been what has been missing from JT’s profile (his last game with more than 12 receiving yards came in September).
I’m not calling for a vintage performance, but I’m not ruling it out. You’re starting him in all season-long spots, and I’ll have some DFS exposure.
Alec Pierce, WR
Alec Pierce (head) was an early exit last week after a tough fall and his iffy status is more than enough to justify looking elsewhere. He’s largely unproven as a target earner and is playing in an offense with the most sporadic QB in the league.
The ability to stretch the field is a real skill, and if we know anything about Richardson, it’s that he has the arm to hit the end zone from anywhere. However, Pierce should be ignored in all season-long formats — he’s exactly the reason God created DFS.
Josh Downs, WR
Josh Downs used the Week 14 bye to heal up his shoulder (DNP in Week 13) and walked right into his standard role by playing 76.4% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps with a 72.7% slot rate.
Downs can be as healthy as he wants to be, and for my money, he’s the best receiver in this offense. But it doesn’t matter if the quarterback can’t throw a stone into the ocean.
Let’s play a game. There are eight receivers this season with at least 50 targets who were drafted inside of the top 75 at the position this summer and have spent over 60% of their time in the slot. Below are their catch rates:
- Player A: 80.7%
- Player B: 80.6%
- Player C: 75.4%
- Player D: 75.3%
- Player E: 74.6%
- Player F: 71.6%
- Player G: 67%
- Player H: 65.1%
Have your guesses?
I’ll buy you a little scroll time. These slot targets are supposed to be the easy-button options, the layup targets, the ones the defense is more willing to give up than the deep ball over the top.
Downs was able to parlay this role into a 7-66-1 stat line on a 25% target share in the first meeting with the Titans, numbers that came from Joe Flacco.
That’s not the world we are currently living in.
How many did you get right?
- Player A: Khalil Shakir
- Player B: Chris Godwin
- Player C: Jayden Reed
- Player D: DeMario Douglas
- Player E: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Player F: Ladd McConkey
- Player G: Cooper Kupp
- Player H: Josh Downs
The point is that you can be as big a Downs fan as you want to be and still not feel great about Flexing him this week with your season on the line. I have him ranked in the same tier as the struggling Deebo Samuel Sr. and Tank Dell.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy profile has changed this season in a major way. He has sacrificed target share (on-field rate is down from 27.5% last season to 22.8% this year) for an increase in depth (8.1 up to 11.1). It hasn’t worked — he’s turned 27 deep targets into just 28.3 PPR points.
In theory, any Anthony Richardson-led offense comes with a wide range of outcomes. Some are positive, but without a single top-15 performance this season, is the risk worth it?
I approach any Richardson game with the hope for a high possession count, understanding that there will be wasted drives, and it’s hard to feel good about that count this week against the second-slowest-moving offense in the NFL.
Pittman was a lock starter for most when we opened the season, but now, he’s not even a top-40 guy.
