The Indianapolis Colts will face the New England Patriots in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
One week after showing some growth, Anthony Richardson was back to Anthony Richardson-ing against the Lions on Sunday.
Yes, he recorded 10+ carries for the third time in four games, but the forward baby steps from Week 11 as a passer disappeared. Against Detroit, he completed just 11 of 28 passes (39.3%) with zero touchdowns. He now has as many games this season with 25+ attempts and a sub-40% completion rate as the rest of the NFL (two) — but wait, there’s more.
He threw 13 passes under pressure on Sunday — he completed one of them (nine yards). You read that right. He was 9-of-12 for 145 yards in such spots against the Jets in Week 11, and then, poof, that growth and maturity vanished.
The Patriots aren’t an overly aggressive bunch on the defensive end, though they have brought the heat when they felt the matchup asked for it (four games this season with a blitz rate of at least 40%). I’m expecting them to label this as such a situation, and while Richardson’s profile always comes with the upside, the floor is too low to risk this time of year with 31 other signal callers to choose from.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
The return of Anthony Richardson under center has decimated Jonathan Taylor’s efficiency. In those two games, Taylor has produced 58.4% under expectations (36 touches for 95 yards and zero scores). Are the recent struggles based on the quarterback? Based on the matchups?
The answer, of course, is somewhere in the middle. Richardson’s rushing equity could eat into Taylor’s the way many feared Jalen Hurts’ would to Saquon Barkley’s, but the Lions and Jets also have plenty of talent on the defensive end of the ball, so that can’t be overlooked.
The Patriots, by EPA, have a below-average run defense, and I think that gives Taylor a chance to post his second top-10 finish of the season as he gets back to the role of 18-22 touches that he had been penciled in for before the one-sided game against Detroit last week.
It’s okay to be disappointed with what you’ve seen from Taylor lately, but it’s not okay to bench him.
Alec Pierce, WR
Anthony Richardson overshot Alec Pierce on what should have been a chunk play and had a shot at becoming an 88-yard score. Such is life when opting to party with a profile like Pierce’s.
He finished the game with just a single grab (39 yards), and you know that level of risk is a part of the deal. He does have three straight games with a 30-yard reception, but is the juice worth the squeeze?
The Colts are one of six teams yet to have their bye, and Pierce is rare in that he has appeared in every one of his team’s games this season. With that knowledge, would you be surprised to know that 112 players have more receptions than him this season?
The Patriots were picked apart by Tua Tagovailoa a week ago, but even in his dominating effort, there were zero 30-yard gains. I’m never going to rank Pierce as a viable weekly option based on his volatile role, but if you’re swinging for the fences, there are few dart throws with a clearer path to a spike week.
Josh Downs, WR
Josh Downs has reached 12 PPR points in each of his past four healthy games, but a shoulder injury resulted in an early exit last weekend, and he is poised to miss the third game of the year.
Even with all of the moving pieces in Indianapolis this season, the second-year receiver has produced 1% over expectation, no minor accomplishment with our “expected points” metric assuming league-average QB play, something that the Colts certainly have not had.
When he returns to the mix, assuming full health, Downs will be my highest-ranked receiver on this team. In the meantime, his very questionable status results in a nice spike in value for Michael Pittman Jr.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
With Josh Downs (shoulder) very much on the iffy side of questionable and Michael Pittman Jr. entering this game with 15 targets (54 routes) in the two games since Anthony Richardson stepped back into the starting lineup, it is very possible that this veteran receiver is set to make a late-season run that rewards you for your loyalty on him during this bumpy season.
When dealing with a sporadic quarterback, I want two boxes checked, and they aren’t too complicated: I want easy button targets and I want the team to script out looks. This season, when Richardson is under center, Downs and Pittman have accounted for 65% of his first-quarter completions and 66% of his slot targets.
I’m not saying Pittman absorbs all of Downs’ looks, but he’s certainly the favorite to see an uptick in usage. The Patriots are one of three defenses yet to intercept a pass thrown to the slot this season, giving Richardson the green light to pepper that part of the field.
There’s always a level of risk to consider, and that keeps Pittman as more of a Flex than a WR2 this week for me, but I think you’re playing him in most spots. I have him ranked ahead of big names like Garrett Wilson and DeAndre Hopkins.