The Indianapolis Colts will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
Joe Flacco wasn’t good last Sunday night, and that, naturally, led to speculation about this 4-5 team going back to the random number generator that is Anthony Richardson. Yet, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Shane Steichen wasted no time in squashing that story and announcing the veteran as his Week 10 starter.
Can we drop Richardson?
I think so. It’s possible that the Colts reverse course should they, as expected, lose each of their next three games (Bills, Jets, and Lions), but does Indy losing give you any more confidence that Richardson will develop consistency with your fantasy season on the line? Are you going to feel comfortable in starting him should he get the nod?
My guess is that if you’re that thirsty for upside at the position, you’re fantasy team likely isn’t playing meaningful games in December. If I’m wrong about that and you’re hanging on for dear life, you probably can’t withstand a bye for your QB1 in Week 14.
As much as it hurts, this is a tough time of year where every roster spot has the potential to impact your starting lineup, and I don’t think you’re getting that from Richardson in standard leagues.
Joe Flacco, QB
Joe Flacco had a fun game against the Jaguars, but in his two games since, he has 63 passes for 368 yards (5.8 per attempt) with as many interceptions as touchdowns (two). He probably gives this team a better chance to win, but not in a fantasy-friendly way.
The majority of QBs in today’s game offer more mobility than Flacco, and at least a quarter of the league has a more talented group of pass catchers to help elevate him. Combine those team-level concerns with an offense that is the fifth-slowest in the league, and I’m not sure this weekend looks much better for Flacco than last (16-of-27 for 179 yards and an interception in Minnesota).
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Jonathan Taylor very much underwhelmed in a matchup that seemed gettable with an aggressive Vikings defense on the other sideline. Failing to reach 60 scrimmage yards in a close game isn’t what we expect from Taylor, but I feel strongly that the poor week was an outlier and not the rule moving forward.
Even in a bad performance where his offensive line was dominated, Taylor gained yardage on every single carry. He’s one of the most talented backs in the league, and that gives him the potential to produce against anyone, including the seventh-best red-zone defense in the NFL (Bills).
That said, Taylor’s path to elite production is going to be cloudy until this passing game demands respect. In 2022, he ran against a loaded box on just 23.4% of his carries. That number rose to 27.2% in 2023 and is up to 31.4% through nine weeks this season.
Taylor is a starter every single week in all formats. However, if he’s going to live up to the league-winning upside that I believe he has, Flacco is going to have to prove capable of moving the chains.
Trey Sermon, RB
There are roughly half a dozen running back handcuffs that offer no stand-alone value and are worthy of keeping stashed for the remainder of the season.
Trey Sermon is not on that list.
Not only has he struggled when given the rock (47 carries and 10 catches this season and yet he’s still in search of his first 20-yard gain), but the team has shown zero hesitation in going back to Jonathan Taylor in a true bellcow role.
Tyler Goodson was better than Sermon during Taylor’s absence, making this a mess of a situation even if an injury were to occur. Are you really stashing a running back who might work into a committee for an underwhelming offense?
I’m not. Life’s too short to burn a roster spot on that type. I’d rather add Khalil Herbert post-trade or gamble on Kimani Vidal in Los Angeles.
Tyler Goodson, RB
Not all elite running backs need to be handcuffed, and Jonathan Taylor is as good an example of that as anyone. Not only are we unsure as to who would lead the backfield in opportunities if JT were to go down again (my money would be on Tyler Goodson over Trey Sermon, but a debate could certainly be had), but there is no hope for stand-alone value without an injury.
Week 9 snap shares:
- Taylor: 71.4%
- Sermon: 26.5%
- Goodson: 2%
Goodson is averaging 4.7 yards per carry with one score on 35 touches. He was fine given the opportunity, but “fine” isn’t cutting it this time of year, not with RB1 at full strength. You can feel good about moving on and freeing up a roster spot.
Alec Pierce, WR
We remember Alec Pierce and Flacco connecting on a 65-yard score in Week 5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars — move on.
That highlight was fun, but in his last two games with Flacco under center, Pierce has turned 56 routes into 41 unexciting yards. Pierce hasn’t proven to be a strong target earner in his career up to this point, and the veteran QB is far less likely to access his 15.6 career aDOT for those splash plays that Anthony Richardson explored regularly.
The Bills’ stingy perimeter defense is a brutal matchup, so you’re not playing Pierce this week, and I expect that to be the case moving forward.
In a league that is trending toward conservative play-calling, Pierce’s profile is a tough sell. There are better options on your waiver wire right now, and I encourage you to get creative.
Josh Downs, WR
I was (wrongly) optimistic about Michael Pittman Jr. entering this season, but I stand by the thought process. That is why Josh Downs is now occupying the WR2 role in my rankings that his teammate opened the season with.
On-field target share from Joe Flacco, 2024:
- Josh Downs: 36.5%
- Michael Pittman Jr.: 19%
- Alec Pierce: 10.3%
This may feel like a WR committee situation, but the data paints a picture of dominance in the direction of Downs, something I’m very interested in leveraging against the third-worst EPA defense against slot receivers in the NFL this season.
Up to this point, Downs has accounted for 74.2% of Flacco’s slot completions and has produced 15.7% over expectations on those looks. I’m looking for him to be fed early and often this week, resulting in my ranking of him ahead of Deebo Samuel Sr., George Pickens, and other high-profile options at the receiver position.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
With just two catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. has successfully worked his way out of my weekly top 30 — and I’m late to the party. Heck, I might be the last one to the party at this point.
I was hopeful that the return to Joe Flacco on a full-time basis would help, and it still might, but we have to see him prove it first as Josh Downs has established himself as the top receiver in Indy. Pittman has been targeted on under 20% of his routes in five straight games (2023: targeted on 27.7% of routes), a role that, without much in the way of per-target upside, isn’t going to get it done.
I’m not turning off the lights on MPJ altogether, but he has to sit down and think about what he has done to fantasy rosters through two months.
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: Buffalo is seeking a fifth straight win – they haven’t had a five-game win streak in the first 10 weeks of a season during the 2000s.
QB: In eight games this season, Josh Allen has been held without a deep touchdown pass seven times (on Sunday against the Dolphins, he attempted just three deep passes (five games prior: 8.6 deep pass attempts per game).
Offense: The Bills are turning the ball over just 0.44 times per game, the second-fewest in the NFL and down from 1.65 times per game a season ago.
Defense: Dink-and-dunk: opponents average a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw against Buffalo this season.
Fantasy: James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards – he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in five of Buffalo’s past six road games, but don’t mistake that for sportsbooks struggling to handicap this team – all of those games finished within three points of the closing total.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Indianapolis’s offense has only been on the field for 25:41 per game this season, which is 100 seconds less per game than any other offense in the league.
QB: Over the past four weeks, Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson have made two starts apiece.
- Flacco: 5.7 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
- Richardson: 5.4 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
Offense: The Colts rank 30th in offensive success rate (ahead of only the Chargers and Browns).
Defense: After a brutal start to the season, the Colts own the second-best rush defense by EPA (first: Chargers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs has a 36.5% on-field target share from Joe Flacco this season (Michael Pittman: 19%, Alec Pierce: 10.3%).
Betting: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season (they haven’t had a winning ATS season in front of their home fans since 2017).