The Indianapolis Colts have had a topsy-turvy season, largely thanks to the inconsistent play they have gotten from their quarterback position. However, their win over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday has kept them alive in the AFC playoff picture, though they remain in a precarious position.
The Colts were one of three AFC teams that could have been eliminated from playoff contention this week. But they staved off elimination for another week and have a favorable schedule to close the regular season. Unfortunately, simply winning out is not enough to get Indianapolis into the playoffs. Let’s break down the Colts’ current playoff situation.
What Is the Indianapolis Colts’ Current Playoff Picture?
Entering this week, the Colts were 6-8 and two games back on the Los Angeles Chargers, who are the seventh seed. Indianapolis needed Los Angeles to drop two of its final three games, so the Chargers’ come-from-behind win over the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football was very bad news for the Colts.
The Colts’ victory over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday keeps them alive, but Indianapolis also needs to win its remaining two games and hope the Chargers lose out, which is a long shot considering the Chargers’ final two games are against the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders.
The Colts do have one other path to the AFC playoffs, which includes the Colts winning their final two games. In this scenario, the Colts would need the Broncos to lose both of their remaining games and need either the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals to also win out.
To summarize, the Colts’ path to the postseason includes the following scenarios:
1) Colts win remaining two games; AND
2) Chargers lose remaining two games.
OR
1) Colts win remaining two games; AND
2) Broncos lose remaining two games; AND
3) Dolphins or Bengals win their remaining two games.
Explaining the Colts’ Narrow Path to the Postseason
All scenarios for the Colts to reach the playoffs require Indianapolis to win out. Both of their remaining games are winnable — on the road against the New York Giants and at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Colts’ most direct path would include the Chargers losing their final two games, but those games being against the Patriots and Raiders means the likelihood of Los Angeles dropping both of those games is very low.
The Colts also get in by winning out, and the Broncos lose out. But in this scenario, they also need the Dolphins or Bengals to win out. Indianapolis’ loss to the Broncos a couple of weeks ago means the Colts do not have the tiebreaker over the Broncos if only those two teams are tied.
They need a third team introduced into the 9-8 tiebreaker. If the Bengals or Dolphins get to 9-8 with Denver and Indianapolis, then the Colts would win the multi-team tiebreaker and reach the postseason for the first time since 2020.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
